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To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7036)	2/1/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Greenspan's Jan 30 testimony before the House Banking Committee has been posted at the FRB website: bog.frb.fed.us >>As I testified before this Committee three years ago, the then emerging Mexican crisis was the first such episode associated with our new high-tech international financial system. The current Asian crisis is the second. We do not as yet fully understand the new system's dynamics. We are learning fast.. ...bank runs have occurred in several countries and reached crisis proportions in Indonesia. Uncertainty and retrenchment have escalated. The state of confidence so necessary to the functioning of any economy has been torn asunder. Vicious cycles of ever rising and reinforcing fears have become contagious. Some exchange rates have fallen to levels that are understandable only in the context of a veritable collapse of confidence in the functioning of an economy. ...These two recent crisis episodes have afforded us increasing insights into the dynamics of the evolving international financial system, though there is much we do not yet understand. ...With the new more sophisticated financial markets punishing errant government policy behavior far more profoundly than in the past, vicious cycles are evidently emerging more often. For once they are triggered, damage control is difficult. ...The belief that local currencies could, virtually without risk of loss, be converted into dollars at any time was shattered. ..These virulent episodes appear to be at the root of our most recent breakdowns in Mexico and Asia. Their increased prevalence may, in fact, be a defining characteristic of the new high-tech international financial system.<<

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7036)	2/1/1998 7:42:00 AM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

GOLDMAN SACHS'S COHEN: GLOBAL MARKET RISKS EBB; ASIA WORRIES OVERDONE economeister.com >>"What is going on in Asian financial institutions is not what is happening to us," Cohen said. She added that U.S. banks "have not been in the forefront of Asian speculative loans", having learned from "their own interesting experiences" a few years ago with Latin America." ... "Asia, for us, is far more important as a source of production than of demand," for the technology sector, and for apparel, footwear and other goods, she said. "Bottom line, 1998 will be yet another good year for our economy, and will see above-average growth in (corporate) profits," with little inflation and no recession on the horizon, she predicted. ...She also pointed out that over the past few years, UK has been a bigger investor in U.S. Treasuries than Japan.<<

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7036)	2/1/1998 7:50:00 AM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 116762

US'S RUBIN: ASIA DOESN'T HAVE ENORMOUS DEBT LOADS LATIN AMERICA HAD >>But Rubin, a former investment banker, said "the greater risk" in the current Asian crisis is that the managers of international banks and other institutions will order their foreign desks "get us out of these (emerging market) countries."<< economeister.com SENIOR CHINESE ANALYST: CHINA WILL PRESERVE HONG KONG DOLLAR PEG >>In a seminar focussing on the social, political as well as economic implications of the Asian turmoil, Ming expressed her concern for the social and political unrest already being experienced in Indonesia. "I believe the priority is regional stability which guarantee all these efforts to solve the current crisis," she added.<< economeister.com