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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lex Luther who wrote (13844)	2/2/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Respond to of 25960

I definately agree... it's just like a car dealership. (EOM) Aloha

To: Lex Luther who wrote (13844)	2/5/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: D. K. G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Lex, I wanted to follow up on your service & spare question. The info below was posted by Maxwell several months/many 1,000's of posts ago. I do not have a direct link to it because I cut and pasted it for my own files on CYMI(as I do for the informative posts on SI). It's a good topic you've mentioned and would be nice to generate some new discussion. I defer to Mr. Maxwell if he would care to update or amend the below analysis. Regards, Denis --------------------------------------------------- Prospect of CYMI and It's Future: According to VLSI's Research, the projected number of demand of DUV excimer laser is as followed. 1996----$459M 1998----$5.059B 2000----$8.044B An ASM/300 stepper with DUV excimer laser costs about $6.5M a pop and with linear extrapolation I get the following figures: Year-----Total Demand-------# of Steppers----Cymer lasers (90%) 1996-----$459M------------------70-----------63 1997-----$2.60B-----------------400----------360 1998-----$5.059B----------------778----------700 1999-----$6.500B----------------1000---------900 2000-----$8.044B----------------1237---------1113 Cymer's Revenue at $.5M/laser without service contract & parts: --------------1996-----1997-----1998------1999------2000 (calculated)--$32M-----$180M----$360M-----$450M-----$557M (actual)------$65M----- I estimated that when the infrastructure of CYMI is in place the service and parts (S&P) will generate at least about $80K/per laser/per year. We must also include all the lasers that were bought at an earlier date. Thus Year----Total # of laser installed--Annual Revenue for S&P 1996----63--------------------------$5M 1997----423-------------------------$34M 1998----1123------------------------$90M 1999----2023------------------------$162 2000----3136------------------------$251 Total calculated revenues for Cymer is: --------------1996-----1997-----1998------1999------2000 Lasers Sold---$32M-----$180M----$360M-----$450M-----$557M S&P-----------$ 5M-----$ 34M----$ 90M-----$162M-----$251M Total---------$37M-----$214M----$450M-----$612M-----$808M NI (14% Prof) $5.2M----$ 30M----$ 63M-----$ 86M-----$113M Notes: 1) I used 14% net profit margin to calculate NI. In actuality the net profit margin for S&P is much higher. Lower profit margin in lasers is to encourage stepper makers to use CYMI's lasers. 2) $80K/laser/year is the value used to calculate S&P. I believe this number will be much higher since laser cavity is not cheap and service is quite expensive (~$200/hr). 3) The growth in S&P revenue for the lasers will outpace the growth in sales of lasers by 1999. 4) VLSI's research calculated based on the KrF 248nm only. New ArF with wavlength 193nm (hope this is the right wavelength) will be inroduced when industry starts to migrate to .18u by late 1999. Thus additional stepper would be needed to do critical layers. This means additional revenues for CYMI which I haven't included. Technical Information: 1) At .25u process, at least 20% total steppers at 248nm steppers are required. The others are i-line. 2) At .18u process, at least 60% are 248nm, 10% steppers are 193nm and the rest are i-line. 3) At .13u process, 60% are 193nm, 10% are 154nm (difluoride), and 30% are 248nm. 4) With 193nm ArF, you can print .15u features. Using phase mask shift you can get about 20% in shrink. If you do an additional O2 plasma flash on the photoresist after developing you can get down to .15u-.13u without technical difficulties. This technique can be applied with difluoride laser and achieve .1u features. Thus I don't see soft x-ray comes to play unless features go down below .1u. Even if the industry can achieve transistors below .1u, the transistors no longer behave CLASSICALLY. At that small the QUANTUM EFFECTS come in and the transistor model no longer holds. Designers must then characterize this transistor all over before they can make a design. It would take the industry longer to go below .1u than you think. In fact I don't believe that the idustry will go in that direction. The industry will stop at .1u and at 12" wafers. Below .1u it is no longer cost effective and the STRANGE QUANTUM EFFECTS will limit the designers. I believe the industry will be more clever and go toward the direction of making "multiple bit transistors" (like Intel's Strataflash) or hibrid opto-electronics. Conclusion: Don't expect CYMI to have sequential spectacular quarter to quarter. If you look at CYMI over a longer period say year to year they will have spectacular growth. It is difficult to maintain "linear" or "exponential" growth from quarter to quarter. The EPS will be more like small growth quarter, exponential quarter, linear quarter, flat, etc. The thing that I like most about CYMI's prospect is their S&P sectors. That sectror will guanrantee CYMER for many quarters to come. Maxwell