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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Zebra 365 who wrote (10119)2/1/1998 10:42:00 AM
From: Captain Jack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
 
Zebra--- I have ben following TPRO a little longer than you. Too bad we were not just a little earlier and got in at >67 - 1.00 instead of 2.875 and up <ggg>. They have done very well and could have done a little better. You expect more "negative hyping" after shorting is possible. There has been very little negative hyping to this point--- unless you count facts that most do not want to know about. If this moves along as it should (big if considering the recent past) there will be less shorting than the MMs have done in the past 5 months. When you are in double digits it will pick up considerably. Around the 1/1/00 period the shorts will be on all Y2K issues in droves. Depending on stock price at that time, earnings ratios etc the number will be considerable. If the price is still in this neighborhood there will be few due to the core valuation and the number of Y2Ks without or with very little unrelated business. I look to have a very good year at that time. I hope to be back shorting TPRO as I hope the numbers bantered here of 20 - 40 materialize. If it is in the 10 - 12 range it will not be worth the bother. Shorts really do help an issue stabilize in price. Daytraders are a great assistance in finding the true value of an issue. Last summer when the traders were here heavy TPRO went from the 3 - 4 range to 6.5 - 7.5. With a help from mgmt and the loss of interest it has languished in the 5 - 6 range. Only the recent taders have pushed the value back to 6. Investing 101 would give a lot of people that only go long a real understanding of how daytraders and shorts help their position.

Come on daytraders---- lets see up to 6 1/2 this week.....
John



To: Zebra 365 who wrote (10119)2/1/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: Andrew H  Respond to of 31646
 
Good post as usual, Zebra. I agree the the recent release is well worth rereading. I think it is now clear that very shortly, TAVA will have all its engineers hired full time on Y2K and other projects, bringing great revenues into the company. And that they will be well set up for work after year 2000. Hopefully, now they will be getting their "franchising" business in full gear.

Since they will be fully employed, we should see earnings growing very nicely over the next few quarters. At this point the big question for me is CD sales. The delay because of Wonderware was disappointing. Only one thousand CDs at the low figure of $10,000/CD will bring in 10MM in revenues, nearly as much as they will take in for this whole Q. And the sale of 10K will bring in 100MM (with very high profit margins. I can only hope that they will do everything possible to get the word out about the efficacy of the CDs and the severity of the embedded chip problem. I would like to see a sales force calling companies and explaining to them why they need the CDs.

>>I believe, had all of these clients and project been announced, one by one, as they occurred, you would see TAVA stock trading in the teens already.<<

Quite possibly--I think the company could have done this to a certain extent without hyping--however, my guess is that many were pilot projects and that those involved in the multiplant projects did not want a dollar figure mentioned. However, more multi-plant and remediation projects will be in the bag very soon and since the company has promised more releases, such announcements could certainly temper the volatility and flat earnings announcements you warn about.



To: Zebra 365 who wrote (10119)2/3/1998 2:01:00 PM
From: Skeptic  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
 
I believe, had all of these clients and project been announced, one by one, as they occurred, you would see TAVA stock trading in the teens already.

The market may not be perfectly efficient, but do you really believe that the timing of the release of relevant information can make a 100-200% difference in the price? How does the timing of press releases affect the intrinsic value of the business?

IMHO, the stock didn't move up more then it did because the expectation of major contract announcements was already built into the price. The stock was weakening when they didn't materialize. The 1/29 announcements merely allowed reality to catch up to expectations.



To: Zebra 365 who wrote (10119)2/5/1998 10:24:00 PM
From: Zebra 365  Respond to of 31646
 
With marginability come the shorts, goes with the territory. I wrote this last week and it needs to be repeated:

Message 3313757

<<On the balance, I am still pleased with my investment. Those who are still uncertain about the future of this company should note a caution. I don't think we will see much of an upside surprise in the coming earnings release. There are many daytraders in this stock, and that will increase with marginability, including traders on the short side. Until the 3rd fiscal qtr earnings are out in April or May, I expect increasing volatility. If you are not convinced about the future of your investment, you may get shaken out by the traders. You can certainly expect to see much more negative "hyping" on bulletin boards after February 9th.>>

We can expect shorting as the stock is now marginable. I think having short interest helps to put a floor on the price in the long run.

In the short run it can certainly make the stock more dangerous to day-trade or trade in and out as many have done with this. And, in the short run it could cap the price as we saw today if that was from shorting.

Making money is never easy, even in the stock market.

Zebra