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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (66420)	2/5/2021 12:38:04 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78687

how have their forecasts been in the past? I assume its the same management. BTW Macerich continues to be on the list of most shorted stocks with 57% short as of january 29. If macerich starts to increase their distribution or becomes an acquisition target the stock will soar again in a hurry. I am mystified by the extent of the short position. With improved distribution of the vaccine and the more stimulus on the way I would have expected this short position to drop. Where i live they just announced they are dropping the age down from 75 to 70 so they must be expecting more vaccine on the way.

To: Elroy who wrote (66420)	2/6/2021 4:59:21 AM
From: bruwin	Respond to of 78687

I remember we discussed SIMO here quite a long time ago .... Message 30792115 Company is looking quite good at the current time. Had a nice up move in its price over the last 3 months. Good to see a Net Margin of ~19%. I get the impression that its available shares are on the low side which may be why it's usually thinly traded at one to two hundred thousand, and maybe also why its "Equity Bond" target calculation shows a high number as one of its denominators is number of shares .....

To: Elroy who wrote (66420)	2/6/2021 6:44:52 AM
From: JohnyP	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78687

That sounds very promising. SIMO usually trades between 12-25 PE. Exception was during 2011-12 when it was trading between 8-10. Even if we give it a 10 PE with EPS of $9.00 we would be looking at least at a $90 share price (the $13 in cash and property adds an extra margin of safety). The thing I do not like in semiconductors is their cyclicality and I have not spent time following the industry. Do you believe that we are in the early phases of a boom cycle then? In that case you give me a lot of work to do during the weekend, but it is very welcome.

To: Elroy who wrote (66420)	2/6/2021 8:25:25 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78687

Re SIMO, I bought some late last year ~$35 and sold in my tax deferred accounts for ~$50. I am keeping my smaller position in my taxable accounts. This worked out well. Thanks for pounding the table on this one.

To: Elroy who wrote (66420)	2/8/2021 4:10:14 PM
From: JohnyP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78687

I followed you into SIMO earlier today. I tend to believe them on the 2023 guidance of $1B revenues. My calculation for their earnings then is as follows: 49% gross margin -> 490 million Gross profit Fixed operating expenses -> -160 million in 2020 Profit before taxes -> 330 million Assuming 15% tax, that leaves us with 280 million in earnings, or $8.00 per share. Still cheap, but curious how do you end up with the $9 EPS figure? Also bought MO recently, due to the 8% dividend and PE below 10. Sold my BRK b to get it. @Paul, if value investors start throwing in the towel we may be around the top!

To: Elroy who wrote (66420)	4/8/2021 11:26:41 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78687

SIMO has blown away Q1 revenue numbers, and the shares have only moved up a little, so.....SIMO is back to perhaps being a nice “value” stock. It’s definitely got growth as well in 2021 after five years of stagnant revenues. My model says Q1 revenues of $180m (up 25% sequentially) will produce EPS of about $1.25, plus or minus 25 cents. The main unknown is operating expenses, $40m (same as last quarter) produces $1.25 in EPS. Revenues for the rest of 2021 will probably continue to grow strongly due to the well known shortage in semiconductors, and low price of NAND memory causing SSDs to displace disk drives in PCs. And 5G phones! Don’t ever forget 5G phones. So....Maybe SIMO’s 2021 EPS reaches $6.00? 2021 revenue growth looks to be above 40%, after growing 18% in 2020. SIMO has more than $10 per share cash, and no debt. So....at $70, SIMO is trading at about 10x 2021 EPS ex-cash. 10x PE and growing sales 40% this year following 18% revenue growth last year. Yup. I’d call that a nice value + growth stock. Happy to answer any questions on SIMO. And.....Silicon Investor also has a SIMO thread where - for a decade now - I have happily talked to myself. SIMO train choo choo, leaving the station......SIMO is exposed to end markets of PCs, notebooks, cell phones, autos, point of sales devices, and some Chinese enterprise storage systems. Mainly PCs, notebooks and cell phones, though. SIMO is a gorgeous acquisition target by some larger semiconductor company that wants to consolidate the semiconductor industry on the cheap.