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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (168338)2/9/2021 6:52:38 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218913
 
Yeup, did same, added, again, because there is no correct price for BTC. It just is.

Everything else except gold has a correct price, and many prices are wrong.

There shall be hell to pay by all, but cannot time the market, and must dance to the tune.

Watching cheap puts getting cheaper.



To: carranza2 who wrote (168338)2/9/2021 9:40:02 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
marcher

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 218913
 
It turns out Satoshi did not invent Bitcoin in competition w/ gold, to displace gold.

Satoshi did not invent Bitcoin at all.

Henry Ford invented Bitcoin, to displace gold, and holds right to prior art. The Ford Foundation should lodge claim for royalty ...

medium.com

The Energy Standard

Bitcoin is Henry Ford’s Energy Currency

Charles Edwards

The New-York Tribune article in 1921

Ford’s Energy Currency

99 years ago, Henry Ford, one of the greatest businessmen of all time, planned the development of an “Energy Currency” to replace gold. Ford’s goal was to end wars which he argued were centered around the control of money:

“The essential evil of gold in its relation to war is the fact that it can be controlled. Break the control and you stop war.” New-York Tribune, 1921

Ford proposed an energy backed currency would stop wars because every country could issue currency backed by their “imperishable natural wealth” of energy resources, such as the US Muscle Shoals Dam.

Henry Ford at Wilson Dam, Muscle Shoals 1921

Bitcoin meets Ford’s definition for an energy currencyWhen asked “Have you worked out a standard of value?”, Ford responded:

“Under the energy currency system the standard would be a certain amount of energy exerted for one hour that would be equal to $1.”

Ford suggested a currency backed in kilowatt hours (kWh) and this is exactly what was found for Bitcoin in Bitcoin’s Energy-Value Equivalence - Bitcoin is “backed” by energy input.

For the last 10 years, 80% of Bitcoin’s price history is explained by a 1-to-1 constant value against energy input. Like all markets, price fluctuates around value. But price and value are intrinsically linked and mean-revert. Bitcoin has a fixed value through time based on the mining energy exerted and its supply growth rate.

Ford also envisaged a fully backed currency:

“Mr Ford proposes that this currency be issued only to a certain definite amount and for a specific purpose.”

In other words, you could only issue more energy currency if you put more energy-in, and this is exactly what Bitcoin does. All else equal, the more energy you put in as an individual miner, the more freshly minted Bitcoin you will receive. On the other hand, the more energy that all other miners put into mining Bitcoin the more difficult, and costly, it is for you to mine Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s value using Ford’s energy standardIn Bitcoins Energy-Value Equivalence, Bitcoin’s value is expressed in “Joules” of energy, but it can just as readily be expressed in “kWh” as dreamed of by Ford.

As 1 kWh = 3.6 million Joules, if energy input and supply growth rate are measured in kilowatts and hours respectively, Bitcoin’s Fiat Factor ($/kWh) becomes:

7.2E–9

Given today’s (20 January 2020) supply growth rate, Bitcoin’s Energy Value can be expressed in kWh as:

Bitcoin’s Energy Value in “$/kWh”Today, the Bitcoin network is consuming approximately 6.9 million kWh of energy, so one Bitcoin is worth almost $12,000.

Said equivalently, 1 Bitcoin today is backed by 1.66 trillion kWh of energy and growing.

Bitcoin is unique as it has an exponentially decreasing inflation rate. Under constant conditions, for any individual Bitcoin Miner more energy is required in the future to produce the same amount of Bitcoin as today. This makes the Supply Growth Rate a critical component of Bitcoin’s Energy Value.

Because Bitcoin’s Supply Growth Rate is decreasing, and will drop substantially with the halving in May 2020, the above “V-today” value will effectively double over the next year. Some simple math will tell you what that means for Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

Bitcoin’s energy “backing” is growing exponentially. As a result, it is likely we continue to see the hyperinflation of the US Dollar, and all fiat currencies, against Bitcoin until this trend stops.

It didn’t work out for FordIn the 20th century, there was no way to accountably and immutably link the value of energy to a unit of currency. Further, there was no motivation for the establishment to even consider a “energy currency” system which could make their existing sources of wealth and power redundant and would certainly remove their ability to pull the levers of monetary policy.

We know that Ford’s plans didn’t eventuate. After three years of unsuccessfully bidding for the Muscle Shoals Dam to kick start the project, he abandoned the plans in 1924 stating:

“A simple affair of business which should have been decided by anyone within a week has become a complicated political affair.”

This is not surprising. Many years later in 1984, Austrian economist Friedrick Hayek noted:

“I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government. That is, we can’t take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can’t stop.”


Friedrick Hayek

Hayek pled for the denationalization of money, believing monetary policy has not done any good, only harm. The full interview with Hayek is well worth a watch.

The 21st century energy currencyToday, an energy backed currency run by the people, which is immutable by any individual organization, can make Ford’s “Energy Currency” and Hayek’s “Good Money” a reality.

To date, Bitcoin has found a way around politics. It has predominantly evaded it and continued to grow in distribution, security and adoption. The longer this journey continues, the harder it becomes for any individual country to stand against Bitcoin — enhancing its “Lindy effect”:

“The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.” Wikipedia

Of course, there are many risks facing Bitcoin. These have been discussed at length in the past. The market has weighed the risks and opportunities, and the current decision is reflected by a growing Bitcoin Energy Value.

As long as mining energy continues to increase, Bitcoin is executing a silent takeover of fiat currencies. In fact, despite a 2-year bear market, Bitcoin’s energy value, and hence the network’s security and intrinsic value, is at a new all-time high as of 20 January 2020.


Bitcoin has never been worth more than today (20 January 2020)
[Live metric available on TradingView here]

The Energy StandardFord was a century ahead of his time. We now know that an energy backed currency can work.

In 1921, Ford posits some advice for the skeptical:

“It’s simply a case of thinking and calculating in terms different from those laid down to us by the international banking group to which we have grown so accustomed that we think there is no other desirable standard.”

Bitcoin is money backed by energy. Welcome to The Energy Standard.

Sent from my iPhone



To: carranza2 who wrote (168338)2/10/2021 12:57:46 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218913
 
Re <<_BTC>>

It turns out that Bitcoin, like most cherish objects, is about sex, whether for recreation or procreation or procrastination.

However anti-fragile Bitcoin be, sex is not anti-fragile

And apparently men are evaluated on the bases of their performance w/r to bitgold

Given such be the case, we best pony up :0)




To: carranza2 who wrote (168338)2/10/2021 9:01:31 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218913
 
Reality check-point ...

bloomberg.com

Tesla’s Bitcoin-Equals-Cash View Isn’t Shared by Crypto Owners

Olivia Raimonde

Elon Musk’s decision to stash 8% of Tesla Inc.’s cash reserves in Bitcoin animated the crypto universe.

Now was Bitcoin’s moment, its arrival on the fourth-biggest company’s balance sheet is a gateway to wider acceptance as a cash alternative. Longtime booster Mike Novogratz suggested soon “every company in America” would accept it as payment. Michael Saylor, whose company, MicroStrategy Inc. parked more than $1 billion in Bitcoin, said the dollar’s days as a reserve currency are toast. RBC Capital Markets analyst Mitch Steves urged Apple Inc. to follow suit.

Observers outside the cheer-leading world of Bitcoin took a different view. While a broader adoption is possible, what’s more likely is that Bitcoin remains what it’s almost always been -- a speculative asset that an odd shop or two takes in lieu of cash.

“I’m certainly very skeptical that there’s going to be widespread movement in this direction in the near term,” said Chester Spatt, finance professor at Carnegie Mellon Tepper School of Business who served as chief economist and director of the SEC’s Office of Economic Analysis. “You have huge volatility, so that raises a lot of questions.”

Even industry participants are doubtful, noting that the base case for Bitcoin has shifted from a medium to exchange goods and services to that of “digital gold,” a store of value that promotes “hodling” crypto assets rather spending them in business transactions.

That’s especially been true as investors worldwide seek higher returns with central banks keeping borrowing rates near zero and governments providing abundant stimulus during the Covid-19 pandemic, fueling concern that inflation is imminent.

But Tesla’s flier poses a logical retort. If the company moves cash into Bitcoin, then it’s equating the two. That may partly explain why the electric-car maker also said it will eventually accept the electronic coin as payment for its cars. If it’s cash, why can’t someone use it as such?

The real test of its conviction in crypto, Spatt said, will be in how Tesla lists its vehicles. “Are they going to price their cars in Bitcoin or are they going to price their cars in dollars?” he said. “That’s the key to what this means.”

Even if Tesla and Musk see it virtually the same as a currency -- a place to park reserves, something to buy a Model 3 with -- most businesses and virtually all of the American public, see it as something else, definitely not the same as cash.

Last year, as Bitcoin rallied 300%, just 0.3% of all transactions that involved cryptocurrencies were by a merchant. The rest were trades, whose volume has surged, according to researcher Chainanalysis. Meanwhile, more than 15,000 businesses worldwide U.S. accept Bitcoin or offer crypto ATMs, according to data from Fundera and coinmap.org.

PayPal Holdings Inc., which began to accept crypto in October, expects to allow the 29 million merchants on its network to do the same. Even so, merchants will be paid in traditional currencies such as the dollar rather than in cryptocurrencies when PayPal customers make purchases.

Musk’s own accountants can’t treat Tesla’s Bitcoin the same as cash. They’ll have to mark down the holding’s value if the price drops, but can’t mark it up until the gain is realized -- all of which underscores the speculative nature of the move.

The Billionaire and BitcoinElon Musk's crypto moments

Source: Bloomberg

The world’s richest man is known for his publicity stunts and need for attention. He infamously involved himself in the rescue of a trapped Thai youth soccer team. He smoked a joint on podcaster Joe Rogan’s show. Lately, he’s been tweeting about Dogecoin, another digital token created as a joke.

Musk can say Tesla will take the coin for a car, but years of data show that most investors see it as a speculative asset, not something to have in a traditional wallet. But giving his fans the potential to use it as cash only heightens their attraction to Tesla and Bitcoin.

What to know in techGet insights from reporters around the world in the Fully Charged newsletter.

“Taking payments in Bitcoin is more of a sign of approval for crypto assets gaining mainstream adoption, rather than something that customers will do en masse,” said Luis Cuende, co-founder of Aragon, a platform for building and running decentralized organizations, with over $650 million in assets under management. “Tesla, as the coolest car manufacturer, keeps on improving their image and brand by positioning themselves as the edgy early adopters.”

Read More: Musk’s Bitcoin Bet Is a Bean Counter’s Nightmare

So far, the switch from cash to Bitcoin has paid off. Hovering near $40,000 before Tesla’s filing landed Monday, Bitcoin has since rallied about 20% to a record $48,215.

“Bitcoin’s original goal was to be digital cash,” said Gil Luria, head of institutional research at D.A. Davidson & Co. “But most people that hold Bitcoin think of it as an investment.”

— With assistance by Kristine Servando

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