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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (15296)	2/2/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

SUMMARY (continued): 3. 47 is the end-of-1998 calendar year price. Range: 34-60. Most people think we'll end the year within 20% of the rest-of-the-year high. 4. 71 is the end-of-1999 price. Range: 40-100. These guesses tend to be about 20 points above whatever the end-of-1998 estimate is. AWARDS: POT award: (pessimist of thread) goes to bb, who has the lowest guess for both year-ends. OOY award: (optimist of the year) goes to pv, who thinks we'll hit 70+ this year. LOOT award: (long-term optimist of thread) goes to taby and aki, who think we'll hit the millenium in triple-digits.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (15296)	2/2/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: stockdoctor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Stockdoctor results: 98 Lo Hi End End 99 27, 55, 55, 85

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (15296)	2/2/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >I am surprised how many people think we'll hit new all-time highs this year. 13 out of 18 (all but jds gm st bb ts) think we'll see 50 again in 1998.< I am basing my opinion on what I have noticed from past AMAT trends from Dorsey Wright, my calculations based on the DW charts (Sector and AMAT), the IBD semi-equip Industrial position currently at 197 of 197 with nowhere to go but up, my belief that tha Asia countries MUST continue to purchase semi-equipment just to stay up with the technology explosion or LOSE EVERYTHING, the IBD concept that when a stock completes the cup portion ($54) of "cup and handle" that it will run up like it did in 1997, that AMAT has a near monopoly of the semi-equip sector based on its size and R & D, Tito's 'yoyo' stair step affect of AMAT and Kumar's statement (when AMAT hit $70 it has the tendency to run up to $100), that the Semi-equip. makers are, figurely speaking, the DNA of technology, and Gottfried's BTB and Price charts. Jacob, if I recall correctly you indicated that you believe that we will see very good growth in AMAT through the year 2006. I concur! IMO, I see three conversion step in the semi equipment sector (area is out of my area of expertise). The reduced size of semi circuits (.50 to .25 & .15) with the 8" wafer, then conversion to the '12 wafer and the .12 to .08 circuit followed by the 16" wafer with . 08 curcuit and below. I am looking for at least two/three more 2x1 splits prior to 2006. Just my opinion. Big Buck and other electrical/computer enginers can give us a feasibility outlook on these projects and electronic projections. Threaders, what are your opinions? Paul V.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (15296)	2/2/1998 9:09:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >Reply # of 15355 SUMMARY OF THREAD PREDICTIONS: initials,rest of 98 (lo, hi, end),end of 99: bb 27 43 34 40 big bucks bs 26 52 36 65 bill shepherd ts 20 38 38 62 teri skogerboe jds 22 40 40 60 jacob d snyder js 27 54 40 55 john stichnoth st 22 47 42 61 stockycd gm27 45 42 65 gottfried mauersberger ro 28 56 45 67 robbie jd 25 50 45 50 john dodson sf 26 54 48 86 small fry sw 29 61 49 91 steve w ph 28 56 49 83 patrick hebert ake31 50 50 70 andy kelly ek 25 54 53 82 eugene kearney aki 30 60 60 100 akidron ta 30 30 60 100 taby bk 30 65 60 90 brian kerecz pv 28 70 60 96 paul v< If you have these on a spreadsheet you can run a the averages and standard deviations of the above data. This would even give us a better range of our guess. Paul V.