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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bruwin who wrote (66767)	3/3/2021 1:55:47 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By DinoNavarre Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78954

Very informative; Your conclusion Buy, Sell or Hold . . I see it more of a Commodity push higher across many different commodities including, Lumber, Copper, Silver, oil and Ag products Wheat, Corn and Soy Beans. Fertilizer prices starting to move higher too. Many times commodities start to run higher from a cycle low w/ an improving economy, then peaks when the economy stabilizes w/ little growth. The other reason is that higher commodities reflect emerging inflation and then exponentially accelerate if we enter hyperinflation. In the past this was due to a significant increase in the money supply (by the Fed) but those tools were used to kick start the economy. Now it is much different because of the Covid event. Two huge things have contributed to an exponential increase in the money supply (1) an increase in the Fed's balance sheet by over $8 Trillion w/ the QE 1.0, 2.0 and maybe 3.0 (could be announced by Powell Thursday) and (2) over $3.5 Trillion in Stimulus over two different programs in Q4 2020 and now Q1 2021. These actions have combined to increase the money supply the most ever I can remember by a multiple factor when viewed as a percentage of the GDP. This creates inflation and there is/continues a move to Buy/Own fixed assets. Low interest rates have caused Home sales to increase the most ever at the highest prices. Most all other fixed assets continue to move higher; Ag land, metals, equities w/ real tangible assets. I just do not seeing this end well because $US will fall (perhaps as much as 50%) so why would you want to own $US and have your money in cash? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The only EXIT Strategy I see is a move back to asset backed $US w/ gold/silver and/or real tangible US assets. You would fold the Fed into the US Treasury, create a new US digital currency backed by real tangible assets (some speculate this may be the Quantum Financial System (QFS). FWIW, The National Quantum Initiative Act was signed into law on December 21, 2018. So, this may/could be what has been called the Global 'Reset'. This type of spending is not sustainable w/o a new Financial System (ie Petro Dollar is gone). That's my long answer/thought why Lumber is at record prices. Good Investing

To: bruwin who wrote (66767)	3/3/2021 2:22:11 PM
From: petal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78954

Well, I certainly do agree about the underlying assumption: that companies' reports are (one of) the best way(s) to understand what is happening inside a co (most importantly, to its financials). I think that almost all of us here can agree on that (and probably almost everyone else too.) But as I think you know, I disagree about that being the best time to buy/sell (unless maybe if it's a really small co whose annuals no-one reads (i.e., e.g., if nothing has happened to stock price despite amazing/abysmal report). My reasoning is the opposite: the contrarian's approach. When the news is good, sell. When the news is bad: buy. (This is one of the several points on which you and I differ; and I think there is a pretty clear line here – probably that old "strict Graham"/"new Buffett" 'philosophical' disagreement – among us value investors more generally, not least on this board.) Why? In your own words: "There's nothing that gets buyers in the market more interested in buying a company's stock than when it reports an Increased Bottom Line profit" So that is the time to sell (when you have high demand driving up the price); hence you want to be in the stock before the news, having maybe bought during the sell-off after one of the poorer reports, when everything looked black as night. Because: "needless to say, the converse occurs when profits are down" ...and that is, au contraire, the time to buy. Best time to buy sandals is in autumn/winter, and best time to look for winter jacket is spring/summer. Best time to buy anything is on sale. (And of course, the reverse is true for selling.)