Re <<just post it as SELL SELL SELL !!!>>
Not one to shout 'fire' in crowded and darkened theatre, because if there be fire, all ought to be able to see, then run.
But feel it be duty to whisper, "rattle snakes" in same theatre had I spotted one by chance and saw another tail by same chance.
With that preamble, "SELL SELL SELL !!!"
Dear Subscribers,
The latest Daily U.S. Market Forecast Report, issue no. 4064 as of Thursday, March 4th, 2021, is now available at www.technicalindicatorindex.com To access this report, subscribers can simply log in and click on the U.S. Daily button.
For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary (for a more intense detailed report, with charts, more statistics, trend analysis, and extraordinary developments, click on the U.S. Weekend and Daily Market Forecast Reports at the website).
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Note to Platinum and Silver Members: We closed out an open ETF position today at a profit. We also entered a new Platinum Options Trade position. Members can click on the Current Trade button for details.
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Today's Market Comments:
Stocks fell sharply Thursday, March 4th, as a developing downtrend is starting to get legs. Volume rose sharply on the decline. The decline was broad-based.
Major Developments: For the first time in ten months, since May 20th, 2020, our Secondary Trend Indicator generated a new Intermediate term Sell signal. Incredibly, for the first time in 13 months, since January 30th, 2020, the stock market generated an Official Hindenburg Omen stock market crash signal. So, on the same day here in 2021, we get both ominous signals. This weekend I will present a detailed analysis of what this new official H.O. means for the probability of a coming stock market crash, and when. The last time we got an Official Hindenburg Omen, the stock market crashed 38 percent to the shock of almost everyone. Not us, as we warned in our December 18th, 2019 newsletter, issue no. 3773, when we wrote:
The stock market is near its rally end. Bull Markets of several degrees of trend are almost finished. For the Industrials, small degree wave d-down for the rally from December 3rd looks over, thus this rally needs one more pull up, wave e-up to complete the fifth and final wave 5-up for the five wave rally from October 3rd. One more lap higher. And that is it. The top. See chart on page 32. This top will catch the entire investment community completely off guard. This small degree move from December 3rd, and intermediate degree rise from October 3rd, are completing large Megaphone tops from 2017, and the massive Rising Wedge and Megaphone topping patterns from 1986. Nobody will believe this. The Bull Market from 2009 is seconds on the clock from its conclusion. This is a Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} Bull Market ending. Prices could rise into early January, and that should be it. We would want to see new Sell signals in all of our key indicators to confirm this top.
On page 54 we see that the U.S. Long Bond is nearing completion of a Bullish Declining Wedge pattern for wave iv down, which means they are about to rally as the stock market plunges. They will be a safe haven as stocks dive."
In fact, U.S. Bonds rose from 155 to 185 from the time we sent out this warning until the crash bottomed in late March 2020, an extraordinary 30 Point rally!
The stock market's second Hindenburg Omen observation Thursday, comes within 30 days of when it triggered its first observation, on Tuesday of this week. It takes two for an "Official" signal, which means the probability of a coming crash rises far above random. It means the stock market is now in a very dangerous place. New Lows were 154 and New Highs were 160 Thursday, the lower of the two coming in at 4.59 percent of the total number of NYSE issues traded, far exceeding the minimum threshold of 2.2 percent. All other qualifier conditions were met. New Lows were not more than twice New Highs, the 10 week moving average is higher than it was ten weeks ago, and the McClellan Oscillator was negative.
Stocks generated a first observation Hindenburg Omen on Tuesday, March 2nd. On that day, NYSE 52 Week New Lows rose to 89, with New Highs at 151. The lower of the two were 2.67 percent of NYSE issues traded, above the minimum threshold required of 2.20 percent. The McClellan Oscillator was negative, New Highs were not greater than twice New Lows, and the ten-week moving average of the NYSE was above its level 10 weeks earlier. All conditions were met.
The point of an H.O. is that we need to see a new Hindenburg Omen if a crash is on its way. Every crash since the 1980s has occurred when an H.O. was on the clock, and none occurred when there was no H.O. on the clock. An official H.O. does not mean a crash is definitely coming, but it raises the probability significantly. This indicator could provide an important clue as to the timing of the next major decline. There was an Official H.O. on the clock when the stock market crashed 38 percent in March 2020.
Our small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell signal. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator remains on a Sell Signal. Our three-component NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicator generated a Sell signal Thursday, from Neutral. Our HUI Mining stocks key trend-finder indicator remains on a Sell signal.
The Blue Chip 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, the Blue Chip Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator, the NASDAQ 100 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, and the NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator are on Sell signals.
As stated before, Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Thursday, March 4th, and remains there Thursday, March 4th, losing 8 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative - 8. It needs to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
This new Sell signal confirms that there is a high probability that the next major declining trend is starting. Our Intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator was originally named our Technical Indicator Index, but we changed it to reflect the intermediate term nature of the benefit of the signal, 3 months to a year typically. We show this in the chart on page 13. Our Secondary Trend Indicator, was previously on a Buy signal since May 20th, 2020, and after that Buy, the Industrials rose almost 7,000 points. Prior to that it generated a Sell signal on February 27th, 2020, catching the entire 2020 stock market crash. So here we are again, another Sell signal, at the same time we see a new Hindenburg Omen, the same conditions the stock market had just prior to the 2020 crash.
The month of March tends to be volatile, with major trend turns starting or ending.
Over the past year, The VIX has formed a five wave Declining Wedge pattern, with a support shelf around 20ish. The VIX recently spiked above 35 to conclude the fourth wave (D) up and is now traveling in the fifth wave, (E ) down. It is again approaching the support shelf. Once (E ) bottoms, the VIX will be poised to rise sharply, which would coincide with a strong stock market sell-off. The VIX's Daily Full Stochastics recently dropped to a level seen at past bottoms. It has since risen as stocks have declined.
Bearish Divergences remain in place, that we have been showing for several weeks between prices for the major averages and their 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, as well as their Demand Power measures, telling us a top could be approaching that will lead to a declining trend. We also see a Bearish divergence between our Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500. Divergences have excellent correlation with coming trend turns. This could provide an excellent opportunity for traders.
Gold fell 15.1 points Thursday, closing at 1700.7, inside a corrective descending expanding triangle pattern we show on page 50. If it decides to drop to the bottom boundary of this pattern, Gold could settle for a bottom around the 1650 to 1675ish area. Silver fell 0.93 Thursday and Mining stocks rose 1. Mining stocks look to be completing corrective wave ivdown, with v-up to follow.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal March 3rd, 2021 and remain there Thursday, March 4th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Wednesday, March 3rd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on February 16th, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on February 19th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power Fell 9 to 440 Thursday, while Supply Pressure rose 7 to 467, telling us Thursday's Blue Chip decline was strong. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal March 3rd, and remains there Thursday, March 4th, 2021. We see another early warning of a major top approaching from the Bearish divergence evident at this time. That decline may be starting.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Sell signal February 25th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal February 18th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on February 25th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal January 11th. On Thursday, March 4th, Demand Power rose 1 to 391 while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 421, telling us Thursday's HUI rise was mild.
DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 9 to - 31.84, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 46.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 39.44 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 46.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 26.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 30.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 8 to Negative -8, On a Sell
Demand Power Fell 9 to 440, Supply Pressure Rose 7 to 467 Sell
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative - 184.94
McClellan Osc Summation Index -2823.16
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.55, an "OFF" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -216.8 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 160 New Lows 154
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Thurssday, March 4th, 2021, and remain there March 3rd, 2021. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on March 2nd, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on March 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on February 22nd, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Thursday, February 25th and remains there March 4th. On Thursday, March 4th, Demand Power Fell 8 to 448, while Supply Pressure Rose 11 to 514, telling us Thursday's decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal February 25th, 2021, and needs to fall below - 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative - 27.4 on Thursday, March 4th.
NDX PPI Fell 13 to 215.80, On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 21.95 Slow 34.15 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 13.10 Slow 24.29 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 27.4 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 8 to 448, Supply Pressure Up 11 to 514 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 11 to 198.05, on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -14.2, On a Sell
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal February 25th, 2021.
HUI PPI Flat at + 235.96, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 15.00, Slow 23.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 1 to 391; Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 421 Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary |
