The DEFCON 5 condition remains on, but ...
Gold is fast approaching a high probability bottom level. Gold fell 20.5 points Monday, closing at 1678.0, inside a corrective descending expanding triangle pattern we show on page 49. If it decides to drop to the bottom boundary of this pattern, Gold could settle for a bottom around the 1650 to 1675ish area. It is almost there. Silver fell 0.02 Monday and Mining stocks fell 2.62. Mining stocks look to be completing corrective wave iv down, with v-up to follow.
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Today's Market Comments:
Stocks had an up-day Tuesday, March 9th, with a few strange wrinkles. The Industrials rose sharply intraday, then for the second day in a row, gave up a huge chunk of the gains into the close. This price action in the Industrials Tuesday formed a Shooting Star candlestick pattern, often seen at tops of at least small degree of trend. In the short-term charts on pages 37 and 38, we see the Industrials are close to completing short-term rising trends inside two possible patterns.
The S&P 500 rose Tuesday, and reached the upper boundary of a pattern that is now clear, a Declining Expanding Wedge. This Wedge has upper and lower boundaries that have stopped all rallies and declines over the past three weeks, precisely, providing key resistance and support. It just reached the top boundary, so if the price action continues within the pattern, it means the S&P 500 is now at risk of starting a decline toward 3675, 200 points lower than Tuesday's close. A breakout above the upper boundary would be a Bullish breakout and negate the short-term Bearish potential.
The NASDAQ 100 had a strong rebound Tuesday, up almost 500 points, after losing 1500 points over the past several weeks. The rebound currently has three subwaves, so at this point looks corrective.
On Tuesday, our small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy signal. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator remains Neutral. Our three-component NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicator generated a Neutral signal Tuesday, as the NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and 14 day Stochastic reversed back to a Buy. Our HUI Mining stocks key trend-finder indicator moved to a Neutral signal, as the HUI triggered a new Buy signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Thursday, March 4th, and remains there Tuesday, March 9th, rising 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 2. It needs to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
The month of March tends to be volatile, with major trend turns starting or ending. There is a Phi mate turn date ideally scheduled for March 31st. A Phi Mate turn date is a cycle turn date that identifies high probability tops or bottoms within a week or so, based upon an historic observation that tops or bottoms tend to occur a Fibonacci number of trading days from a previous top or bottom that correlates at a Phi ratio, 0.618, or the value 1.0 minus Phi, 0.382, from the all-time inflation adjusted top in the Dow Industrials, in terms of Gold's value in U.S. Dollars, January 11th, 2000.
Over the past year, The VIX has formed a five wave Declining Wedge pattern, with a support shelf around 20ish. The VIX recently spiked above 35 to conclude the fourth wave (D) up and is now traveling in the fifth wave, (E ) down. It is again approaching the support shelf. Once (E ) bottoms, the VIX will be poised to rise sharply, which would coincide with a strong stock market sell-off. The VIX's Daily Full Stochastics recently dropped to a level seen at past bottoms. It has since risen as stocks have declined.
Gold is fast approaching a high probability bottom level. Gold fell 20.5 points Monday, closing at 1678.0, inside a corrective descending expanding triangle pattern we show on page 49. If it decides to drop to the bottom boundary of this pattern, Gold could settle for a bottom around the 1650 to 1675ish area. It is almost there. Silver fell 0.02 Monday and Mining stocks fell 2.62. Mining stocks look to be completing corrective wave iv down, with v-up to follow.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal March 5th, 2021 and remain there Tuesday, March 9th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, March 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on March 5th, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on February 19th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power Rose 7 to 470 Tuesday, while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 453, telling us Tuesday's Blue Chip rise was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal March 9th, and remains there Tuesday, March 9th, 2021.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Neutral signal March 9th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal February 18th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Buy on March 9th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal January 11th. On Tuesday, March 9th, Demand Power rose 4 to 396 while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 412, telling us Tuesday's HUI rise was moderate.
DJIA/SPY PPI Rose 6 to - 14.47, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 55.33 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 80.00 Slow 53.33 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 60.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 83.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 86.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Up 2 to Positive + 2, On a Sell
Demand Power Up 7 to 470, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 453 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative - 6.25
McClellan Osc Summation Index -2702.29
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.47, an "OFF" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 85.4 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 278 New Lows 9
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Neutral signal Monday, March 8th, 2021, and remain there March 9th, 2021. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on March 9th, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy on March 9th, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on February 22nd, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Thursday, February 25th and remains there March 9th. On Tuesday, March 9th, Demand Power Rose 21 to 476, while Supply Pressure Fell 10 to 512, telling us Tuesday's rise was powerful, with deep pockets intervention and short covering buying the market.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal February 25th, 2021, and needs to rise above + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to negative - 5.4 on Tuesday, March 9th.
NDX PPI Rose 23 to 236.76, On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 36.59 Slow 29.76 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 48.81 Slow 29.52 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 5.4 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Up 21 to 476, Supply Pressure Fell 10 to 512 Sell
RUT PPI Up 3 to 208.39, on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 108.90, On a Sell Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal March 9th, 2021.
HUI PPI Up 2 to + 239.99, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00, Slow 18.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 4 to 396; Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 412 Sell |