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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (169291)	3/9/2021 2:51:27 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217592

Fun reading VIX charts: Yesterday I wrote: "In the (SQQQ) puts, 15 is the new 13... but looks hopeless." Just off by a day or two on my SQQQ "lower" bet, and what a difference a day makes. Sweet spot at the 14 (+383%) with SQQQ down now at $14.41 Should have carried my VIX analysis back into SQQQ and just didn't... but also didn't carry it into a look at the $VIX and QQQ options as I should have. QQQ not the leader dragging others lower it seems... NASDAQ up 3.79%, playing catch up... vs Dow up 1% and the Russell 2000 up 2% + Silver up 3%, gold up 2%... So, today, everything up... except oil almost $2 lower than the days high... "Normalcy" restored ? For a day or few ? Called the $VIX red candle to the right correctly, at least...VIX down to 23 as the directional indicators are less conflicted now... the ADX won the fight... and it looks likely to be 21 tomorrow on trend... but I doubt it has that much energy in it now... The hard floor is at 20, hit 6 times since December... but maybe not the dynamic in this chart to get there... Still think another down-ish candle tomorrow... as before. The ADX +DI (green) falling with more vigor now and -DI (red) rising with a steeper slope resolves the short term directional issue... lower... and for another day at least it seems... but the ADX indicator line (black) as the accelerator is still rising... so maybe candles get bigger or stay larger from here ? The best chart proxy is back in Sept-Oct 2020... when VIX was bracketed inside the range between the 200MA and the 50MA... Back then the MAs sloped up and were farther apart... Now they're parallel and basically flat... the 200 a very slight slope down, the 50 a very slight slope up... and they're closer together... so the daily moves don't stay inside the narrow gap between them... and it looks a bit noisier that way. Back in Sept-Oct the ADX (accelerator) line pointed down... now it slopes up... but with the same directional indications. Best proxy in that period is from Sept 21 to Oct 1st... which is much like what I think we might see again now... only magnified... with the MAs closer together... and bigger candles... Not sure there's much of a trade in it... yet... as the UVXY is out ahead of that chart look... already bumping along the lows in the proxy of the hard floor at 20 on the VIX... not likely to go much lower... and the chart gives no reason for thinking much bigger change is in the offing in the next day or two... at least. But comparing the UVXY to the $VIX options chain... the VIX at $23.06 right now... has puts at the $23 strike up 366%... with a still very steep line between the $23 ($0.28), the 22 ($0.04) and the 21 ($0.02). UVXY is priced as if $20 is a done deal... the actual options trade still refusing to accept that the VIX might go lower... The detail in $VIX vs UVXY divergence there worth noting too... the UVXY chart is "flat"... just back to bumping the lows again... while the $VIX is not flat... but has an upward bias in the ADX accelerator line... and in higher lows since Feb 10-12, with lower highs dating back to 29 January... building a symmetrical triangle... with a convergence in 2 weeks... almost certain to try to escape that pattern before then... and it shows that a lower low tomorrow would disrupt that pattern... maybe... or just mask it ? But the options trade is betting that symmetrical triangle in the VIX will be preserved... while the charts, other than that pattern existing now in fact, give no obvious reason it shouldn't break down into a bit of sideways moving noise loosely centered around the MAs instead... If it does trade lower and break the pattern ? But, if look a day or two ahead... if it trades inside the limits of the triangle ? At this point that would mean maybe only a day or two in timing differences between ups and downs within the pattern... with moves of larger than usual magnitude being likely... so maybe a few days betting on "lower" in the VIX... against market expectations of higher... really only an issue of timing trades as the "cheap" options threshold shifts radically day to day... ?