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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (169323)	3/9/2021 3:36:18 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217596

Seems someone plugged the market into the earlier tried and true electric socket, and all good again Bitcoin was the early sniffer dog, and now the wagged tail is QQQ Closed 1/2 of shorted position at small / diminished but still profit. Shall likely re-short before the weekend, or not, and watch for a while. All of the happenings seems like hunting, but with the beast already in sight.

To: sense who wrote (169323)	3/10/2021 3:07:01 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217596

Yesterdays post: "But comparing the UVXY to the $VIX options chain... the VIX at $23.06 right now... has puts at the $23 strike up 366%... with a still very steep line between the $23 ($0.28), the 22 ($0.04) and the 21 ($0.02)." Today: the VIX trade in range between 22.40 - 23.87, now at 22.85... a clear "smaller" step lower in another red candle as I thought most likely... the lack of energy in the move not enough to change traders convictions. very much. But the move does violate the short term symmetrical triangle to the down side. The puts : the $23 ($0.28), now $0.10 on todays, $0.95 on March 17 the 22 ($0.04), now $0.02 today, $0.40 on March 17 the 21 ($0.02), now $0.01 today, $0.15 on March 17 So, not a trade left there for me, it seems... longer dated puts are too pricey... and odds not that good... unless others do see today's lower low candle as a break of the symmetrical triangle pattern pushing us much lower still on the VIX... but, the hard floor at $20 converting the look back to a descending triangle: "Descending triangles are bearish continuation patterns. They are an inverted version of ascending triangles. The form as a downtrend stalls out. The lower support trend line goes flat or horizontal as the upper trend line continues to fall diagonally closing the gap. The upper trend line represents sellers anxious to unload their position by lowering the ask/offer prices. Eventually sellers get impatient and overwhelm the support trend line by dumping shares. This triggers panic as the price collapses in a breakdown that kick starts the next leg of the downtrend making new lows." The March 17 puts: $20 at $0.07 $19 at $0.04 $18 at $0.03 But this chart is not saying its close to breaking the longer term descending triangle yet... so the $20 strike is the only rational play to make in the cheap put options... for now... but the timing still a question as the trade decelerates from here if it continues lower... could stretch out a while... A move higher tomorrow will reset the symmetrical pattern as it if was not violated... giving another trade off the highs... a move lower tomorrow will likely just take the wind out of the sails... And, for now, the calls also still align with much higher as the expectations being priced in... so no bargains found there... with there being a lot of time left on the clock... stay focused on trading against the skew on up days near the higher limits... Odds are... the next trade here will be off a move higher... expecting it stays within the short term symmetrical triangle.. for a week yet at least... would look to reset puts near the top of the triangle on an upward vector at the top of the candle on a lower high... still well above the MAs... most value depending on going against the flow in the trade as it is nearing the peak, before it tops and turns lower again... But the weekly charts don't show it violating the symmetrical triangle... and show the descending triangle dates back to February of 2020... so the time component is "slow moving"... while the "return to normalcy" narrative would put it down to the lower bolly on the weekly at $15... but is there anything "normal" about the plans being implemented now... to "return us to normal" ? How do massive outliers in action... restore normalcy ? So, reset the date on the triangle base to January 1st 2020... and now its a symmetrical triangle again... with a fake floor at $20, and an upside bias that is easily explained... giving an expectation of "higher" to a certainty... in any breakout from the "descending" triangle. So, still looking for big spikes higher in VIX... as the triangle pattern ages toward a convergence... at some point before it converges... which is in about 2.6 months... say the first of July... a bit before that being sort of near the 21st of June date on the Basel III implementation... the prior delays in which may be what ended the PM bull market back in 2011 ?