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Gold is fast approaching a high probability bottom level. Gold fell 20.5 points Monday, closing at 1678.0, inside a corrective descending expanding triangle pattern we show on page 49. If it decides to drop to the bottom boundary of this pattern, Gold could settle for a bottom around the 1650 to 1675ish area. It is almost there. Silver fell 0.02 Monday and Mining stocks fell 2.62. Mining stocks look to be completing corrective wave iv down, with v-up to follow.
Today's Market Comments:
We have written a comprehensive article about the Hindenburg Omen, what it means; why it is a dangerous market condition; its history; how it is calculated; its past performance; its correlation to stock market crashes; and the probabilities of a crash or plunge when the market generates one. Because of its size, we have posted it and is available for you at our Guest Articles button at the left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com . We think you will find this article interesting.
Stocks were mixed Monday, March 8th. The Industrials rose sharply intraday, up over 600 points, then sold off half the gains into the close. The S&P 500 started the day higher, and ended down 20 points. The NASDAQ took another big loss Monday, and have lost 1500 points, 10.92 percent, since February 12th's closing all-time high. Volume was moderate.
On Monday, our small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator flipped back to a Buy signal. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator remains Neutral. Our three-component NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicator generated a Sell signal Monday, as the NDX Purchasing Power Indicator reversed back to a Sell. Our HUI Mining stocks key trend-finder indicator remains on a Sell signal.
The Blue Chip 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, the NASDAQ 100 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, and the NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator are on Sell signals.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Thursday, March 4th, and remains there Monday, March 8th, rising 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to zero. It needs to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
The month of March tends to be volatile, with major trend turns starting or ending. There is a Phi mate turn date ideally scheduled for March 31st.
Patterns and wave mappings are not clear for the major stock indices over the short-run as we continue to see sharp daily reversals and overlapping waves almost daily.
Over the past year, The VIX has formed a five wave Declining Wedge pattern, with a support shelf around 20ish. The VIX recently spiked above 35 to conclude the fourth wave (D) up and is now traveling in the fifth wave, (E ) down. It is again approaching the support shelf. Once (E ) bottoms, the VIX will be poised to rise sharply, which would coincide with a strong stock market sell-off. The VIX's Daily Full Stochastics recently dropped to a level seen at past bottoms. It has since risen as stocks have declined.
Bearish Divergences remain in place, that we have been showing for several weeks between prices for the major averages and their 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, as well as their Demand Power measures, telling us a top could be approaching that will lead to a declining trend. We also see a Bearish divergence between our Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500. Divergences have excellent correlation with coming trend turns. This could provide an excellent opportunity for traders.
Gold is fast approaching a high probability bottom level. Gold fell 20.5 points Monday, closing at 1678.0, inside a corrective descending expanding triangle pattern we show on page 49. If it decides to drop to the bottom boundary of this pattern, Gold could settle for a bottom around the 1650 to 1675ish area. It is almost there. Silver fell 0.02 Monday and Mining stocks fell 2.62. Mining stocks look to be completing corrective wave iv down, with v-up to follow.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal March 5th, 2021 and remain there Monday, March 8th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, March 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on March 5th, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on February 19th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power Rose 4 to 463 Monday, while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 456, telling us Monday's Blue Chip moves were mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Exit Short Signal March 5th, and remains there Monday, March 8th, 2021. We see another early warning of a major top approaching from the Bearish divergence evident at this time. That decline may be starting.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Sell signal February 25th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal February 18th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on February 25th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal January 11th. On Monday, March 8th, Demand Power fell 4 to 392 while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 417, telling us Monday's HUI decline was mild.
DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 2 to - 20.59, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 53.33 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 47.22 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 60.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 76.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 80.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Up 2 to Zero, On a Sell
Demand Power Up 4 to 463, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 456 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative - 38.37
McClellan Osc Summation Index -2708.54
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.44, an "OFF" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -56.5 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 461 New Lows 15
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Monday, March 8th, 2021, and remain there March 8th, 2021. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on March 8th, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on March 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on February 22nd, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Thursday, February 25th and remains there March 8th. On Monday, March 8th, Demand Power Fell 5 to 455, while Supply Pressure Rose 18 to 522, telling us Monday's decline was powerful, with deep pockets intervention buying the market with both hands to prevent an onslaught decline.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal February 25th, 2021, and needs to rise above + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to negative - 16.6 on Monday, March 8th.
NDX PPI Fell 15 to 213.39, On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.49 Slow 30.98 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 25.71 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 16.6 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 5 to 455, Supply Pressure Up 18 to 522 Sell
RUT PPI Up 1 to 205.02, on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 34.0, On a Sell
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal February 25th, 2021.
HUI PPI Fell 1 to + 237.32, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00, Slow 20.00 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 4 to 392; Supply Pressure Up 1 to 417 Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary |
