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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169349)	3/10/2021 10:56:27 AM
From: Roads End	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217661

The dinosaur brain image was good but cancelling the meeting to discuss Jesse Livermore because of the congressional hearings over Game Stop, whoa! Put down the buy button, put your hands up, and slowly back away. The Reddits that currently suffer PTSD from the recent collapse to the 50 DMA should think about putting that meeting on their iCal.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169349)	3/10/2021 5:26:00 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217661

Most interesting to me... The gap between yield and 5 year breakeven... seems it resembles what I see emerging on equity charts in a sustained pattern shift between price and Accumulation/Distribution Line... Price remaining high... as the ADL plunges... see a chart of BTG for instance... "can" indicate that the ADL is showing you where the price is going... But the mechanics of ADL mean it can also reflect other shifts that aren't as predictive... including that its metric being set at a closing price means it can be too easily "painted" with small trades timed at the close... also meaning it doesn't work well with gap stocks... not accounting well for changes between days but only within the day... More useful is the degree in which, if not painted, it can show percentage shifts in short interest... which might not be fully reflected in other reporting... Just sayin... So, if you take the issue specific concerns out, or take them in context.... you'll have to look at a lot of charts... or study the individual issues to know what it "really" shows in what it shows... Maybe an ETF ? But averaging into a portfolio... perhaps removes and dilutes the differences versus explain them ? Still, looks like it worked this year so far on the daily charts in relation to SIL: the ADL from 52 to 37... price, lagging, from 50 to 39... at a time we KNOW the trade was being manipulated to deliver that result ? Brace yourself before looking at the weekly chart... In the GDX... the daily charts suggest more reason for optimism ? But, the weekly charts... ? If the driver that matters is accumulation of physical gold owned prior to June 21... not so much about the shares ? Gold mining, like bitcoin mining, keeps getting harder over time. Before the 1980's one ounce per ton was "a low average required to justify mining." Today, that number required is below a gram ? The ADX daily says shares are being suppressed... while physical gold is accumulated ? Hmmm. Future gold is already much harder to get than physical that exists now ? The most leverage is in getting the physical cheap... as the cost of getting more keeps going up ? But, if the driver that matters in silver is running into real and growing supply limits now... as both monetary (mostly retail) and real industrial demand grows... even without any green energy stories being told ? Future supply in silver... not like gold in getting much harder over time... is mostly a function of shares owned, first... and then of price rising over $40... giving a lot more supply that is known to be there, and able to be mined... at a little bit higher price ? The most leverage is in the shares... as supply goes into deficit. And, the grades in silver deposits known... hasn't really changed much at all in a hundred years... its not getting any harder to find more silver... they just quit mining the known deposits when prices made it not profitable... Resolving generations worth of stockpiles as an overhang, while price has made mining impractical... has an endpoint. That end point is now, or soon... and then mining has to be made profitable again... with $60 silver doing that well enough... not $1000 silver... The leverage in not profitable to mine with a generation of price suppression... suddenly changing to profitable again and being promoted instead of destroyed routinely ? Shares have more leverage than the commodity... silver the better bet... the best being the greatest high grade deposits at the steepest discounts... with the cheapest mining. Then, timing trades versus the market and the time it takes to make a mine out of moose pasture. The metals though, not outside context in differences between "rosy scenario" and "a crash" looming large ? And, the difference between "fueling an economic boom" that will drive commodities demand and inflation higher in tandem... (Wheee!!!) and "we just lost the wheels... so appear to be slowing down" (*&^%$#@)... So, not just a question of "if there will be a crash"... with a flood of new money... as the market is seeing it... But a question of what happens next if/when there is a crash... 1.) to the real economy [and its hoped for (non-explosive) boom in everything all at once] ... 2.) to inflation... 3.) to "money" in its various guises.... It isn't good enough to "pick one"... between hyperinflation... acceleration into a deeper deflationary depression [than the one we've been in since 2008]... or a "crack-up boom" ? You be right about all the various impacts to expect... and lose you ass in the markets... if you don't time the trades right ? So, you have to get the sequences and timing of events right... not just see the risks ? As June 21st approaches... and maybe doesn't really matter... as it "allows" change but doesn't impose it ? What will banks do differently on June 22 ? Or every day after ? They will stop trying to steal from you by spoofing trades ? LOL!! Seems to me the right place to be looking in that range of choices between many places to look... will be the place that the fewest others are looking... And that seems it is not if or when there will be a crash... involuntary or engineered... between March/April and some time this fall... but the "and then what" element of change in result... ? "Then what"... will not alter advantage in "buy low"... It will alter advantage in "buy what"... based on events. A big difference between a finely tuned top fuel drag racer tearing up the track... setting new records... and the track tearing up a badly tuned top fuel drag racer after the engine explodes and the wheels come off... so, seeing differences in potential, you probably shouldn't bet those two things the same way ? Those lug nuts well in hand, now... ? Admonishing the pit crew... all that was required to convert them back into a crack team of top performers... making no mistakes... a perfect car... and a best of class driver... pairing up in winning the race ? Should you place bets on the likelihood of the car and driver setting new records... or place bets on the likelihood of the car surviving to reach the finish line ?