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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (38370)	3/16/2021 10:39:53 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By rcksinc Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41515

Hi ski, I like simple too. In a 3 of 3 ought to be a ringer. Clx studies say strength through all of this week, and both brks and cohu have just put in Macd upward reversals Cohu confirming today and Brks yesterday. both showing several 3 wave moves up and down, ut really sideways for a while. Both are showing the six time period leading the 12 which is a requirement of a stronger run up. Both have beaten on earnings and both have guided higher than consensus for Q 1 earnings which is due out in 30 days. Both have had nice rises going into the last earnings ,and then punked out on the news. Cohu is famous for that. The modest rise in rates is the excuse for tech declining. I don't buy it. Semi's are classic low debt companies as they've had to tough out the cycles troughs. A 15 point basis rise is next to zero impact on their earnings - Heck Brks has no debt and several hundred million in cash. I'm thinking a three of three should have enough strength to last into earnings and more. That being said I always get braced for exceptional noise as we enter into an earnings period that also coincides with the quadruple witching of the March quarter. I've planned on lightening up this March period. In fact last month I bought to cover puts I had sold last year that expired in March - they we.re cheap to buy and not have to worry about. I have one put due to expire in June, two in July and two in September, then nothing till January of 2022 (all XOM and CVX all well out of the money. If it looks like we get a pop into the end of the week, I'll peel off some Cohu of Brks and buy some XOM and pad my dividend income. I don't like the talk of cap gains and dividends going to 39.6. These Democrats are handing money out like candy and wanting to build the excuse to take the winnings of long term investments. There greedy bastards IMO. I may decide to just hold a smaller portfolio. Accumulate my cash. Invest it into 90 day treasuries as a store of value (no worry about market declines), and just await the inevitable black swan event. It may be a long way out, but the credit crisis of 2008 took till 2020 so far to get remotely like a euphoric 2000. I'm very happy with the idea of leaving money on the table and locking in life time of investment in secure cash that won't disappear into vaporized money. There are bubble valuations out there, on companies that do not make much money. The poster child for that is TSLA. A company that has had first leader advantages and not made much in money (less than their carbon credit sales. GM and VW the two largest makers of autos are very close to issuing some EV. They'll be pricy, but pretty and I suspect the new and cool is about to leave TSLA with sme old designs that need refreshing. I would not be surprised to see both VW and GM come out with predatory pricing, much like they did with Saturn and the recent Corvette. In both cases new vehicles MSRP stickers were intro'd below what the same current model as slightly used vehicles sold for more than the MSRP stickers! If one envisions the competing entries all giving TSLA a dose of competitive pricing, we'll see TSLA's average selling price decline and/or they'll lose market share. Either one will be hard on TSLA's stratospheric enterprise valuations. Take the trillions out of TSLA and the indexes will reflect the loss. Not sure if that becomes the pending 4th wave or it is delayed to the final top of the coming five wave? EV's have yet to build much market share. They will be strongest in China then Europe, and weaker in the USA , and weakest in emerging markets where cost is king, per McKinsey studies. There will also be heads butting when China blows billions on semi chip building dominance. I can feel a South Korea sovereign waste of money coming like they did trying to achieve memory dominance in the 1998 to 2002. Excess capacity is very hard to work out of and it takes time. It is these fast moving high prices that make me nervous. I much more prefer cash collateralized on selling puts that are sidelining at trough values. Sell them on dips and let time decay carry you a nice return on top of the dividend they pay. It's a nice slow way to accumulate wealth that most hate to endure. <smile> Long rant but I like simple as you point out. Lastly, what happens to equities when the tax rate goes to 39.6 plus Obamacare surcharge = 40% plus tax rates, and possibly that rate on dividends as well? I have no answers on that one! Bob