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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (1600)	3/23/2021 8:29:13 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10599

The variable is still in timing... the long period look, first. Easy enough to establish threshold values saying "beyond this point, I want to be out of the market"... and thus lower risk... while waiting for it to be realized by others... Sell "high enough" without trying to pick the exact peak... while not regretting what is left on the table. Then, "buy low"... once the bubble is resolved... which in 2000 was not until 2002... A mistake to think future events will mimic the last event... in nature or in the evolution of patterns in the trade, or in the timing. And, of course, long on the way up, short on the way down... means markets are mostly the same most of the time... only with variation in volatility... when you're not married to the idea stocks should only go up. Harder, but still possible, if willing to do the work... and to properly manage the risks... to learn to ride the Brahma bull... trying to refine the timing, narrow the targets, cherry pick them, and increase profits with success. Mostly, that's still about being on the right side of a trade as a trader... picking opportunities... trading well, not "investing"... without taking any pointless risks, but deliberately avoiding them... mostly. The wild card in risk is always out there, though... It may not be Jerome Powell saying something stupid, AGAIN... that initiates change at a tipping point... or that pins your trade to the mat for a day or two, instead ? But, even then, there is information to glean in the effort being made, and in the way it is executed ? As there information now in the timing of "interventions"... that historically would have been unimaginable... now made routine... but not often skillful... ham fists alone generating new risks of failure as sensibilities grow more delicate. Deliberate study of tipping point behavior... an essential. You can't predict the itinerary of every potential black swan... But, you can be prepared for black swans arriving unexpectedly at points and times when their arrival would be more likely to be particularly unhelpful. Getting a copy of Powell's speaking schedule ? Hmmm. I noted this one... which bubble watchers should easily recognize as "navel gazing" or "fiddling while Rome burns": 3/23/2021 Financial Stability Implications of Climate Change Governor Lael Brainard At "Transform Tomorrow Today" Ceres 2021 Conference, Boston, Massachusetts (via webcast) So, if the market implodes tomorrow, and the answer is "it was climate change that did it"... you can still say, "Hey, I thought you guys were on top of that"... as you sift through the rubble of your portfolio of high flying green energy stocks ? It also might not hurt "to know what it looks like"... either revisiting the history from just last year... or others: 2015–2016 stock market selloff