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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lou Weed who wrote (1612)	3/24/2021 3:21:18 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10599

That's total BS... If you're actually a buy and hold investor... which very few people really are... you don't, or shouldn't, give a crap about "good days" and "bad days" in the market... as the only days that matter to you are the day you bought and the day you sold... and the difference that matters most in the price change occurring between them. But, that's still wrong... as it says buy high sell low is the way to go... because losing money while being patient is good... and you shouldn't care whether you have gains or losses before realizing them ? I think the only situation in which that is ever sort of true... but still improved by applying a bias in good timing... is if you dollar cost average investments in a declining market environment... with strict discipline... which is not to say random timing... but, that's still only a surrender to uncertainty... accepted at the certain cost of knowingly taking a loss... The uncertainty itself is not a random variable ? It's just a surrender to sloth... as making it less of a variable requires work... and most people are lazy. If you believe that... you deserve to lose your money. What they're really saying... is that most people don't have the discipline required to succeed... so you should accept not succeeding in a way that might lose less money over time... if you're really, really lucky... or really, really patient... How long will it be until those guys who bought GME at the top... break even ? A good day in a bear market... has no impact on you... unless you sell on that day... and buy back a week later at a lower price to get more shares than you had before ? If you just hold through that good day... and watch the share price resume its decline... why ? Winning in your investment... doesn't come with any bonus points awarded as frequent mover miles... depending on how much chart the issue uses in moving up and down on days you don't buy or sell. It appears to imply that "good days" in bad markets somehow "stick" to sustain elevated prices in future? Bull shit. All that says is that you can make more money in stocks buying high and selling low than you can buying low and selling high... which is obviously stupid... and not made less stupid by dressing it up with statistical arguments that are lies... given they're not base-lined to YOUR reality... now... rather than some statistical hypothetical you don't care about. If you bought in 2000 and sold in 2002... because that's when you needed the money... and you lost 80% of your investment that way... what possible benefit is there... in valuing the good days on the way to an 80% haircut... when what that really means is, yeah, the kids eat tuna fish sandwiches again tonight ? The goal is to learn to make money... and grow the pile... even in down markets... and not learn to develop nerves of steel / ulcers... as you watch the nest egg dwindle into nothing... If you don't cut your losses.... and let winners run... learn basic trading skills... there is no possible way to succeed in "beating the market"... ?

To: Lou Weed who wrote (1612)	3/27/2021 5:34:12 PM
From: benwood	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10599

You would have to be an incredibly bad market timer -- professional market mistimer? -- to miss 100% of the ten best days. I view these sort of stats as having a purpose, and that is to groom as many people as possible to be bag holders at the next market top. I have noticed in my investing career that these always start to pop up when valuations are high, help convince the late comers to stay in because 'it's for their own good.' Yeah, they want to sell TO YOU at the distribution top, sucker. It's blatant cherry picking of the data in order to skew it the maximum possible, and to seen as innocently plausible. Wow, missing that few days can be that disasterous?? -g- But what if you missed the ten WORST days between 2000 and 2014? I do think you have to be a decent market timer, not panic selling, not panic buying, or you really will ruin your returns over time. I read recently of an investor in SOXL that was timing, and he did an analysis over the course of his 18 months of shifting in and out and discovered he'd have had 38% more shares had he just kept his original investment the whole time. -ggg-