SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bull_dozer who wrote (170276)4/7/2021 4:49:29 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 219694
 
Re << US military cites rising risk of Chinese move against Taiwan >>

Just various civil servants devoid of imagination and so substituting thinking with weaponising Chinese Chinese Chinese for any number of motives, agenda, and such same. Chinese of Taiwan are doing just fine, building infrastructure, boosting education, creating talents, encouraging savings, and making chips, for Chinese of Mainland, etc etc, using rare earths from the Mainland, for Mainland. As the Chinese on both shores of the East China Sea feel same re Diaoyu Island, the moves likely be to do with that rock than anywhere else, shiny objects and distractions not withstanding.

zerohedge.com

Biden Says Infrastructure Plan Vital To Keeping Pace With China


Update (1430ET): Biden tried to sell his infrastructure plan as critical to keeping the US competitive against China, and is overdue after decades of under-investment in infrastructure. "It’s a once-in-a generation investment in America," Biden said. "It is a the single largest investment in American jobs since World War II," he said.

He also once again claimed that American voters - including Republican voters - support the infrastructure plan (even as most polls show Republicans overwhelmingly support Biden's predecessor, and oppose the new administration's agenda).

But because of the depredations of the pandemic, Biden insisted his bill needed to go beyond rebuilding roads and bridges. He said the US needs to finance expanded Internet access, replace lead water pipes in communities - since nobody knows which town will be the next Flint, Mich., or so Biden said - and building out charging stations for electric vehicles, absorbing billions of dollars in capex costs that might have fallen to American corporations like Tesla.

Because if the US loses the race to switch to electric cars, China just might "own the future."

"China and the rest of the world" are "attempting to own the future - the technology, quantum computing, investing significant amounts of money dealing with cancer and Alzheimer's," he said. "That's the infrastructure of a nation."

“Do you think China is waiting around to invest in its digital infrastructure and research and development? I promise you, they are not waiting. But they’re counting on American Democracy to be too slow, too limited, too divided to keep pace.”

He also said he would be open to be open to compromise with Republicans regarding how to pay for the bill, so long as it doesn't raise income taxes on American families bringing in more than $400K. Compromise is "inevitable," he said.

"Debate is welcome. Compromise is inevitable. Changes to my plan are certain," Biden said. He added he would soon invite Republican lawmakers to the White House and that the administration is "open to good ideas and good-faith negotiations."

But, Biden said: “Here’s what we won’t be open to: We will not be open to doing nothing. Inaction is simply not an option.”

GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell has said he would support a more scaled-back infrastructure plan, but they have attacked both the proposed tax hikes and the large scale of Biden's pitch.

* * *

President Joe Biden will deliver his second sales pitch for his "American Jobs Plan" in under a week on Wednesday, when he will "ramp up the pressure" (according to Bloomberg) on recalcitrant Republican lawmakers by appealing directly to their voters while Congress is in recess and lawmakers are home visiting in their districts. Biden's plan calls for $2.3 trillion of government spending,

His speech from the White House is slated to begin at 1345ET. According to Bloomberg, Biden and his team have been scrambling to reach out to governors, mayors and the broader public through phone calls, briefings and local TV appearances to make their case for "Part 1" of the president's two-part infrastructure/climate change/wealth redistribution program (and the massive federal tax hikes needed to pay for them...or at least offset some of the cost).

BBG added that Biden will insist that certain less-popular aspects of his plan (replacing lead pipes, expanding high-speed broadband access, upgrades of the electric grid) are necessary to help the US compete against China.

White House aides have said they want Congress to make significant progress on an infrastructure bill by Memorial Day. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Peter DeFazio said Tuesday his panel aims to complete its part “probably” in the third week of May.

But while Biden and his handlers have been eager to paint the massive stimulus bill as accretive for both the economy and taxpayers, an analysis conducted by the Penn Wharton Budget Model found that the proposed business tax provisions - which continue past the budget window - will decrease GDP by 0.8% in 2050, relative to current law. Here's why:

the spending provisions of the AJP, in absence of any tax increases, would increase government debt by 4.72% and decrease GDP by 0.33% in 2050, as the crowding out of investment due to larger government deficits outweighs productivity boosts from the new public investments.the tax provisions proposed in the AJP, in the absence of any new spending, would decrease government debt by 11.16 percent in 2050. Despite the reduction in public debt, the AJP’s tax provisions discourage business investment and thus reduce GDP by 0.49 percent in 2050.Bloomberg economists, meanwhile, have said the plan would boost annual fixed investment in the economy by about 6%.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has said Biden will host lawmakers, including GOP leaders, in the Oval Office to discuss the Biden plan, but the president has also said he'd be willing to go the "reconciliation" route, which would allow him to bypass the filibuster and pass the plan through the Senate with a 50-50 vote (with the tie presumably broken by VP Kamala Harris).

Republican lawmakers have blasted Biden’s plan, calling it too large after his $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill and saying it would damage the economy with the proposed corporate-tax hikes to help fund it. The White House is hoping to make an end-run around that criticism through public appeals.

"We hope that Republicans can join their constituents across the country in supporting this effort," Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union. "Ultimately, if that doesn’t happen, he is elected to do the job, to win the future for America, to invest in our people."

Watch the video live below:

Anyone searching for more details on the Biden infrastructure plan should consult this fact sheet released by the White House. Remember, Biden and his team are also planning another $1 trillion to focus on "human infrastructure" in a separate bill that the administration hopes to push through in a few months, assuming everything goes according to plan with Part 1. Most recently, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo has become the latest to push for Dems to remove the cap on SALT deductions imposed as part of the Trump tax cuts.

Sent from my iPad



To: bull_dozer who wrote (170276)4/24/2022 1:58:50 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219694
 
Re <<Taiwan>>

Believe Armstrong is wildly optimistic / pessimistic (depending on PoV) w/r to China Taiwan as opposed to China / Taiwan

2023 too early

2028 about right

2032 almost for sure

only issue is whether the HK approach or the Ukraine protocol

Am agnostic, especially on the whereof and whatnots, just saying what probably shall be

I see I am a few reads behind and shall correct the situation after placing orders

ask-socrates.com

Blog


While the press is jumping on the dollar and that central banks are starting to reduce their dollar exposure in their reserves, what they are NOT reporting is that several central banks have seen the handwriting on the wall. Yes, they are reducing the dollar in their portfolio generally by 5% adding the Australian, Canadian, Japanese, yen, and the British pound, the drastic cut has NOT been to the dollar, but on average a 33% cut in the Euro reserves. Some, like Israel, are also adding the Chinese yuan, but this amounts to about 2% so far.

This proxy war with Russia has destroyed the world economy with sanctions and removed Russia from SWIFT. This has sent a warning to the entire world that the SWIFT system is no longer trustworthy and it has become simply a political tool. This has provided the incentive for China's alternative system thereby dividing the world economy and bringing to end globalization.



We have recreated the Euro, based on the formula from 1998 to provide a full picture of what the Euro looks like since World War II. The rally into 2008 merely retested the high of the 1950s, We still see the Euro falling to test 81 cents by 2025. Right now, the technical support here in 2022 lies at 10712, and a break of that level is the technical warning that our long-term outlook will be correct. This is obviously intermixed with the Ukrainian crisis of war, but it is also the GREEN policies that are being pushed ahead that will destroy the European Union and result in civil unrest and separation.

In reality, Le Pen should win here in April which will be a serious blow to the EU, the polls show currently that Macron has a 57.5% lead over Le Pen’s 42.5%. Yet make no mistake about it, the EU intervened in the Scottish elections with EU people counting the votes and they did the same in Italy. Do not be surprised if they rig the election in France to ensure that Macron survives. They have already been raising allegations that Le Pen embezzled 650,000 euros 18 years ago desperately trying to impact the election.



If the EU rigs the French election, this is going to result in serious civil unrest in France. Macron wants an EU Army and will take Europe into war with Russia. We can see that the turning point in the Euro will be lined up with the French election on the Empirical Model. War appears to be heating up in August with a Directional Change in September. This is also the target period for the EU to impose its proposed embargo on Russian energy.

The obvious strategy to take down the West would be for Russia to cut off all energy to Europe and invade the NATO countries. The people behind Putin are the real warmongers and they have been pushing for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine to scare the hell out of Europe. But Putin has been the one who was trying to modernize Russia and wanted it to be fully integrated into the world economy. Hence, the sanctions were braindead for they lent more support to the hardliners than Putin.



China would logically then take Taiwan and the US would be incapable of fighting on two fronts. The potential for anything on a geopolitical level in Taiwan is also showing up in the September/October period. Nevertheless, our war cycle is really targeting 2023 for the start. Hence, these targets here in the late summer of 2022 may see the initiation of conflict that is then escalated in 2023.





Therefore, while many governments indeed follow our model, we cannot confirm or deny that they have been making the shifts in their reserve portfolios based upon Socrates. We published our report back in 2018 where we projected that China would become the new Financial Capital of the World. Making such a forecast put out by our computer is one thing. Living through them is something totally different. Never in my wildest imagination did I ever think that someone like Biden would be tearing up world peace and the global economy on a deliberate basis. That shift in power from the US to China becomes far more obvious today than it was when that report was published back in 2018.



To: bull_dozer who wrote (170276)7/26/2022 9:50:57 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219694
 
Re <<Taiwan>>

whatever Pelosi's decision, massively bullish

edition.cnn.com

Biden administration working behind the scenes to convince Pelosi of the risks of traveling to Taiwan

(CNN) — National security officials are quietly working to convince House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the risks her potential trip to Taiwan could pose during a highly sensitive moment between the self-governing island and China.

Sources familiar with the speaker's plans say she is planning to visit in the coming weeks as part of a broader trip to Asia and has invited both Democrats and Republicans to accompany her. If she goes, she would be the first House speaker to visit in a quarter century.
The possible trip is highlighting the concerns within President Joe Biden's administration over China's designs on Taiwan as Beijing has stepped up its rhetoric and aggressive actions toward the island in recent months, including sending warplanes into Taiwan's self-declared air defense identification zone several times. US officials have expressed concern that those moves could be precursors to even more aggressive steps by China in the coming months meant to assert its authority over the island.

The war in Ukraine has only intensified those worries, as Biden and other top officials nervously watch to see what lessons China may be taking from the Western response to Russia's aggression.

Meanwhile, China's President Xi Jinping -- with whom Biden expects to speak this week -- is believed to be laying the groundwork for an unprecedented third term as president in the fall, contributing to the tense geopolitics in the region. Biden's call with Xi was in the works before Pelosi's potential visit to Taiwan became public, officials noted.

Administration officials have shared their concerns not only about Pelosi's security during the trip, but also worries about how China may respond to such a high-profile visit. With China recently reporting its worst economic performance in two years, Xi finds himself in a politically sensitive place ahead of an important meeting regarding extending his reign and could use a political win, multiple officials told CNN.

While Biden's aides have ideas about how he could potentially respond, they aren't sure which direction the Chinese leader will choose.

It is against that highly charged backdrop that Pelosi has proposed visiting Taiwan with a congressional delegation, a trip that she has so far declined to confirm publicly. But that has not stopped China from lashing out, saying a visit would violate US policy toward the island.


China's Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday said Pelosi's trip should be canceled, warning that China's military would "resolutely defend national sovereignty" if faced with "external forces" encouraging Taiwanese independence.
"China demands the US take concrete actions to fulfill its commitment not to support 'Taiwan independence' and not to arrange for Pelosi to visit Taiwan," Ministry of Defense Spokesperson Tan Kefei said Tuesday in response to questions over Pelosi's reported trip to Taipei.

"If the US insists on taking its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will definitely take strong actions to thwart any external force's interference and separatist's schemes for 'Taiwan independence,' and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity," Tan added.

Because Pelosi is in the presidential line of succession, the administration takes extra care for her security when she travels overseas, the White House said Tuesday.

That includes establishing a footprint on the ground based on the location and environment, sometimes using military resources, according to John Kirby, the communications coordinator at the National Security Council.

"We take those obligations seriously," Kirby said, even as he reiterated Pelosi has not announced any travel plans to visit Taiwan.

Administration lays out the risks for Pelosi

Behind the scenes, Biden administration officials have been working to spell out the potential risks of a visit in meetings with Pelosi and her team.

Pentagon officials briefed the speaker last week about Taiwan and the heightened tensions in the region, according to people familiar with the matter. White House officials were also present for the briefing.

The President let slip last week that the US military was opposed to Pelosi visiting Taiwan now, but the White House has refused to expand on his comments. Even Pelosi said during a news conference last week that she wasn't sure precisely what Biden meant.

"I think what the President was saying is that maybe the military was afraid of my plane of getting shot down or something like that. I don't know exactly," she said.

The White House said Tuesday it was providing Pelosi information about her potential travel.

"I'll let the speaker talk about her travel plans. Our job is, of course, to make sure she has all the context and information before she travels anywhere. But that kind of rhetoric coming out of the Chinese side is clearly unhelpful and not necessary," Kirby said on CNN's "New Day."

"There's no call for that kind of escalatory rhetoric," Kirby added. "Again, none of this has to devolve into conflict. Nothing's changed about our policies with respect to One China or supporting Taiwan's ability to defend itself. So, there's no reason for this to be escalated, even just in rhetoric."

Potential trip comes at tense moment in China

Administration officials are concerned Pelosi's trip comes at a particularly tense moment, as Xi is expected to seek an unprecedented third term at the upcoming Chinese Communist Party congress. Chinese party officials are expected to begin laying the groundwork for that conference in the coming weeks, putting pressure on the leadership in Beijing to show strength.

Officials also believe the Chinese leadership don't completely grasp the political dynamics in the United States, leading to a misunderstanding over the significance of Pelosi's potential visit. The officials say China may be confusing Pelosi's visit with an official administration visit, since she and Biden are both Democrats. Administration officials are concerned that China doesn't separate Pelosi from Biden much, if at all.

Instead, the politics surrounding the potential trip have become somewhat reversed. A number of Republicans have encouraged Pelosi to go ahead with her plans, arguing it would be a strong stand against China, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

"Nancy, I'll go with you. I'm banned in China, but not freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there!" Pompeo tweeted this week.

Pelosi has long cultivated a tough-on-China stance. She issued a strong statement in June on the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre reminding everyone she helped unfurl a banner there two years after the massacre reading, "To those who died for democracy in China."

Biden looks for stability

Biden, who has sought to stabilize ties with China through regular conversations with his counterpart, is planning a phone conversation with Xi this week in which the issue of Taiwan could likely arise.

He last spoke to Xi in March, when he worked to convince the Chinese leader not to support Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine. Officials have been watching closely how Beijing responds to the invasion, hoping the mostly united Western response — including a withering set of economic sanctions and billions of dollars in arms shipments — proves illuminating as China considers its actions toward Taiwan.

Kirby indicated Tuesday that China is observing the global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as it plots next steps in Taiwan, saying, "I'm sure they're watching this in real time" but that there was "no reason for this to devolve into any kind of conflict."

US officials believe there's a small risk China would miscalculate in responding to a Pelosi visit. Biden administration officials are concerned that China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan ahead of a possible visit as an effort to upend the trip, potentially raising tensions even further in the region, a US official told CNN.

That remains a remote possibility, officials said. More likely, they say, is the possibility China steps up flights further into Taiwan's self-declared air defense zone, which could trigger renewed discussions about possible responses from Taiwan and the US, the US official added. They did not detail what those possible responses would entail.

While the administration has not, and does not, plan to officially tell the speaker not to travel to Taiwan, officials have been frank in the briefings about the risks associated with a trip. People familiar with the matter say their hope is to quietly convince Pelosi of the trip's risks without explicitly telling her not to go.

In the end, the speaker will make her own decision, Biden officials noted.

CNN's Kylie Atwood, Barbara Starr, Betsy Klein, Yong Xiong and Hannah Ritchie contributed to this report.



To: bull_dozer who wrote (170276)1/2/2023 4:23:06 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 219694
 
Re <<This accumulation of concerns meshes with the administration’s view that China is a frontline challenge for the United States and that more must be done soon — militarily, diplomatically and by other means — to deter Beijing as it seeks to supplant the United States as the predominant power in Asia. Some American military leaders see Taiwan as potentially the most immediate flashpoint.>> circa 4/7/2021

... as events turned out, the military leaders were wrong by a few thousand miles

In any case, re Message 34138921 <<“The department will continue to look for ways to accelerate delivery of capabilities for all our partners, based on the urgency of the threat,” Ms. Singh, the Pentagon spokeswoman, said in a statement.>>

my recommendation, perhaps simplistic, is that the Team USA should simply finance Team Republic of China to source weapon systems from the People's Republic of China and charge a margin, and turn around to pay that margin back to the PRC as toll manufacturing charge for processing Russian / Venezuelan crude into useful fuels such better to sanction the Saudi Arabians or whomever, or to more expeditiously crater the EU economies