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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)4/18/2021 2:11:57 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13794
 
Hi Bob,

Tovarich Kondratieff was right
Covid as a healthcare issue? Bill Gates in love with healthcare?

6. Sixth Cycle
Many economists believe that we are in a sixth Kondratieff wave that started around 2005. They primarily believe that this cycle will be fueled by advances in healthcare. Economic growth will be triggered by improved productivity in handling healthcare issues

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/kondratieff-wave/



To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)4/19/2021 2:31:20 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13794
 
Hi Bob,
It is normal in industry for the incumbent to delay the move to next best technology.
But they can't do it forever.
Delaying the move to next best technology is not a privilege of the energy industry.

Give you an example, albeit from consumer goods:
We were using music and video cassettes in our cars and homes when the CD was already available but the Japanese had new factories producing for the music cassette industry that they had to pay back and Japan (that dominated that industry) delayed the CD entry into the market. They did not push it.

The cassettes was technically obsolete.
Technical obsolescence is when a product still does well what it was designed to do but there is a new device that does it better.

For instance display technology:
CRT and other display technologies -our old TV sets- were good at what they were designed for but a new technology flat-panel television incorporating liquid-crystal display (LCD) technology, especially LED-backlit LCD technology, largely replaced CRT and other display technologies.

Of course this above is device products but Creative Destruction strikes any industry. Not only consumer goods.
  • Jet engines displaced piston engines.
  • Fiber optics displace microwave relay stations

The new technology might be better but more expensive -need to achieve economic scale- and the customer is not willing to pay for the new device. Adding that engineers are clever people and they fine tune and keep making constant improvements in their products to keep the new technologies away. They know if they don't do that they go Kodak and Polaroid way.

Which brings is to:
  • Energy.
  • The 100-year old electricity generation
  • The internal combustion engine.

There is way too much money in the trio above and with too much money comes too much power which, in its turn, results into to much power to block anything that tries to topple them. Which is normal as self interest prevails. When there is too much at stake, people usually do not like the chairs re-arranged around the table.

Fossil fuels do not want its demand destructed.

Fluidized bed combustion developed in the 80s burned coal cleaner and kept coal into the energy matrix
The fossil fuel producers stopped flaring NG and started competing with coal to generate electricity
Gigantic investments to clean sulfur at refineries were made to keep diesel engines
Lean burning Diesel engines were developed
Hybrid cars (combustion+Electric) came to the market
There was a possibility move to NG powered vehicles. (See table below) but it was not done
Even adding ethanol is blocked.

The industrial base idea was: change to keep the same thing.

In short, the energy sector was too clever to its own good which led people to decide it needed a push.
and out of which the Climate Thing was born

The Climate Thing is basically:
We will unleash so much noise that the energy sector, eventually, will be forced to move.
Once the bankers went into the mix all bets were off.

The trio above reached an inflection point.
The direction is going to change

Ranking of Countries using NG vehicles.



To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)4/30/2021 12:52:44 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13794
 
Santa Claus came earlier: Biden Unveils $1.8 Trillion American Families Plan: Here’s How It Will Affect Your Bottom Line



Kelly Anne Smith
Forbes Advisor Staff
Updated: Apr 29, 2021, 2:27pm

Just over a month after signing a giant stimulus package into law, President Joe Biden is set to introduce his plan to improve the U.S. social safety net.

Biden will present his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan to Congress on Wednesday night. The plan aims to expand anti-poverty measures the president implemented in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis and prioritizes helping working- and middle-class American families.

“It is not enough to restore where we were prior to the pandemic,” reads a fact sheet from the White House. “We need to build a stronger economy that does not leave anyone behind–we need to build back better.”

Included in the plan are provisions to make temporarily-expanded tax credits permanent, implement federally-mandated paid family leave and expand nutrition assistance. The plan is expected to face fierce opposition from Republicans—but still has a chance at becoming law thanks to reconciliation.

Biden plans to pay for his plan by taxing high-income Americans. The plan would increase the top individual tax rate from 37% to 39.6%, and would raise the capital gains tax rate from 20% to 39.6% for taxpayers making over $1 million.

What’s in the American Families Plan?The American Families Plan includes a wide range of provisions aimed at supporting Americans in child care, education, family leave and more. Highlights of the plan include:

National Paid Family and Medical LeaveThe United States is one of the only industrialized nations in the world that doesn’t guarantee some kind of paid family leave.

Biden’s proposal would guarantee 12 weeks of paid parental, family and personal illness/safe leave. The pay would be equal to two-thirds of the worker’s average weekly wages, up to $4,000 per month. Workers in the lowest wage cohort would have 80% of their average weekly wages replaced.

The proposal would allow workers to bond with a new child, care for a seriously ill loved one, adjust to a military deployment, find safety from sexual assault, stalking or domestic violence, cope with their own serious illness or grieve the death of a loved one. It will also require employers to allow workers to accrue seven days of paid time off to seek preventive medical care for themselves or their family.

The pandemic has exacerbated a hole in the social safety net, especially when it comes to women, many of whom were forced to take on additional caregiving roles as schools and daycares shuttered during the pandemic. The White House factsheet estimates more than 30 years of progress in the women’s labor force participation rate has been erased by the pandemic. The unemployment rate of women 20 years and older jumped from 3.9% in March 2020 to 5.7% in March 2021.

Biden’s plan for paid family and medical leave would cost $225 billion over 10 years.

Expand Tax Cuts for Working FamiliesBiden’s last stimulus package, the American Rescue Plan, made temporary expansions to a wide range of tax credits. The American Families Plan calls on Congress to expand or make those changes permanent, including:

Make Affordable Care Act premium tax credits permanent. The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) provided premium tax credits to lower insurance premiums bought through the health insurance marketplace. The American Families Plan would make premium reductions permanent by investing $200 billion in them. The White House estimates nine million people will save hundreds of dollars on their insurance premiums per year, and four million uninsured people will gain coverage as a result.

Further Extend The Expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC). ARPA expanded the CTC from $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child ages 6 to 17, and $3,600 for children under 6. The plan also gives the option of receiving the credit through monthly payments starting in July, instead of having to wait to claim the entire credit on your taxes. The American Families Plan would keep these changes to the CTC through 2025. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a nonprofit, non-partisan tax policy organization, estimates families in the lowest 20% wage percentile would receive a $4,520 income boost in 2022 from the expanded CTC alone.

Make the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) expansion permanent. The EITC is a refundable tax credit that helps low- to moderate-income workers and families. It can reduce how much tax you owe, or generate a refund. ARPA nearly tripled the tax credit for working class families and benefitted 17 million low-wage workers. Biden’s new proposal calls on Congress to make the expansion permanent.

Permanently increase the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC). The CDCTC is a tax credit to help working parents cover child care expenses. ARPA expanded the credit to as much as 50% of spending on qualified child care costs for children under the age of 13, (up to a total of $4,000 for one child or $8,000 to two or more children) —and change the credit from nonrefundable to refundable, meaning it can generate a tax refund or reduce how much you owe in taxes.

The 50% reimbursement is for families making less than $125,000 per year, and can be used for full-time care expenses, after school care and summer care. Families making between $125,000 and $438,000 can receive a partial credit. The American Families Plan calls on Congress to make this expansion permanent.

Provide Free Community CollegeThird-level education costs in the U.S. continue to climb. U.S. News and World Report data shows that average yearly tuition and fees at a private university for the 2020-2021 school year is $35,087; public, out-of-state universities cost $21,184 annually, and public, in-state schools cost $9,687. The American Families Plan aims to reduce college costs, expand higher education opportunities and invest in communities of color.

The American Families Plan would offer two years of free community college to all Americans, including DREAMers. First-time students and workers who want to learn new skills would be able to use the benefit over a three-year period, and in some cases, up to four years for part-time students. AFP would invest $109 billion into these resources.

Federal financial assistance to pay for higher education would also be expanded under the plan. Pell Grants would be increased by $1,400 to total $7,745, and access to the award would be expanded to DREAMers.

The American Families Plan also makes large investments in higher education opportunities for communities of color in an effort to mitigate inequalities in postsecondary education.

Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs) and Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs) would receive $39 billion to provide two years of subsidized tuition for students coming from families earning less than $125,000 and are enrolled in four-year programs.

Biden’s proposal also would invest $200 billion to create free preschool to all three-and four-year-olds, citing an estimated saving of $13,000 for the average family.

Nutrition SupportThe pandemic revealed how critical facilities like schools are for low-income and communities of color when it comes to getting children nutritious meals. The American Families Plan aims to expand access to nutrition for children by investing $45 billion in nutrition support.

The plan would make the Summer Pandemic-EBT plan, provided by the American Rescue Plan, permanent. Doing so means all 29 million children receiving free and reduced-price meals during the school year will continue to have access to them when classes are out for the summer.

Biden’s plan also expands the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), a program that allows high-poverty schools to provide meals free of charge to all of their students. Additionally, schools that adopt specific measures for healthy food offerings will receive a reimbursement, similar to the healthy food initiative enacted during the Obama administration.

Individuals convicted of a drug-related felony are currently ineligible for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), unless a state has chosen to eliminate or modify the restriction (currently, all but seven states have done so). The American Families Plan would eliminate this barrier.

Child Care ReformChild care is a necessity for working parents, but one that is often a significant financial burden. More than half of families report spending at least $10,000 per year on child care, according to a 2020 study by Care.com. The American Families Plan would make child care affordable for families in need of it the most, expand access to services and invest in child care workers.

The plan would cap the cost of low and middle-income families to no more than 7% of their income on “high-quality child care,” granting an estimated $14,800 in savings per year on child care expenses. Families eligible for the assistance would be those earning 1.5 times their state median income.

Child care centers would also be provided with funding to improve their services and pay their workers more. The plan provides funding “to cover the true cost of quality early childhood care and education,” such as appropriate curriculum, smaller class sizes and environments that are inclusive for children with disabilities. Early childhood staff will receive a $15 minimum wage and training or coaching for professional development.

Unemployment Insurance ReformThe American Families Plan would automatically adjust the length and amount of unemployment insurance benefits workers can receive, depending on economic conditions. A fact sheet from the White House gives little specifics on this provision, but appears to give flexibility to Congress for it to easily adjust the length and amount of benefits in times of economic crises.

Will the American Families Plan Become Law?Biden’s proposal is wide-reaching and includes provisions supported by a vast swath of the Democratic party—but it’s already unclear just how much support the actual proposal will receive, or what it might look like if it becomes law.

Progressive Democrats have called on Biden to go further, such as making the CTC expansion permanent instead of only running it through 2025, or providing double the funding for expanded child care. PunchBowl News, run by veteran Capitol Hill reporters, believe “zero” Republicans will vote for the plan, especially since it includes tax increases. There’s also the large price tag that will likely make Republicans wary, especially during a period of economic recovery.

Biden could pass the plan through the budget reconciliation process, meaning it would only require a simple majority vote in the Senate, as he did with ARPA in March. Special approval by the Senate parliamentarian that the proposal is eligible to be passed under the budget reconciliation process would be needed. The legislation still needs to be drafted and negotiated by the House.



To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)5/9/2021 8:06:58 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13794
 
Hi Bob! Fancy go back to work?

Who is going to build the infrastructure that Biden wants?

Government giving money to people not work doesn't exactly create hardworkers.

McDonald's Apologizes for Understaffing: 'Nobody Wants to Work Anymore'
One McDonald's has come under scrutiny for a controversial sign it shared.

According to local media, many restaurants are struggling to hire staff now that businesses and activities are being reactivated following pandemic-related restrictions.

The high prices of commodities that we see now is just the beginning of an era of higher prices
Message 33314472

Wait till these infrastructure projects take off.



To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)5/12/2021 1:45:35 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13794
 
Hi Bob

Car Prices Are Soaring. Why Are Car Dealer Stocks Down?



By
Al Root

May 12, 2021 1:11 pm ET
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Used cars at Frank Bent's Wholesale Motors in El Cerrito, Calif.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Inflation data surprised to the upside Wednesday. That’s one estimate “beat” investors didn’t want to see. But a big reason for higher-than-expected inflation was car prices, which are soaring.

That should be a good thing for car-dealer stocks. But they are down on Wednesday.

Shares of online car dealers Carvana (ticker: CVNA) and Vroom (VRM) are down 5.9% and 2.3%, respectively, in recent trading. That compares with 1.3% and 1% respective drops in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Traditional dealer and car-information provider stocks are weak Wednesday as well. AutoNation (AN), CarMax (KMX), and Sonic Automotive (SAH) shares are down about 2% on average. Shares of auto-data providers Cars.com (CARS), CarGurus (CARG), and TrueCar (TRUE) are down roughly 3%.

This feels wrong. Brokerages are spread businesses buying and selling for a small margin and piling up profits as volumes pick up, and brokerage stocks typically love rising prices. That’s true for stock traders. It’s true for car dealerships too.

Inflation helps spread businesses in another way. The existing inventory was typically bought months ago at lower prices. A car purchased wholesale by a used-car dealer in February is worth more at retail than it was back then. Buy-sell spreads tend to expand when prices rise.

So what’s up? For starters, the stocks have been on fire. The eight stocks listed above are up, on average, 108% over the past year and 10% year to date. Investors have already caught on to the fact that car prices are rising.

And today’s inflation data were bad. The April year-over-year increase in consumer prices was 4.2%. That’s higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In April 2020, of course, things were falling apart amid Covid-19 lockdowns. But the March to April pickup in prices, excluding food and energy, was 0.9%. That rate equals full-year inflation of more than 11%.

Inflation that high is like a parasite. It eats into savings and sucks energy out of the economy. It also tends to hurt stock valuations. The higher the inflation rate, the higher interest rates. And higher interest rates make it more expensive to operate businesses. It can also depress price/earnings ratios.

No one expects inflation to keep up at that rate. Car prices will help settle overall inflation numbers when car makers make more cars. A global semiconductor shortage is constraining car production around the globe. Auto makers are hopeful the supply situation will normalize by year end.

That will be welcomed by car investors who, today, appear to have gotten too much of a good thing.



To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)5/28/2021 2:41:23 AM
From: elmatador1 Recommendation

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gg cox

  Respond to of 13794
 
Miners Aren’t Investing
Commodity Prices Have Soared, but Miners Aren’t Investing
Limited spending on new projects raises concerns about future supply shortages, particularly for metals used for lower-carbon products


Copper’s price has almost doubled over the past year. Workers inspected a copper mine in Chile in March.PHOTO: GLENN ARCOS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

By
Alistair MacDonald

May 25, 2021 7:00 am ET

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Despite a commodity boom that is boosting profits, miners aren’t throwing cash at new projects, raising concerns about future shortages of some metals.

So-called technology metals, such as cobalt, copper and lithium, are set for particularly large deficits, analysts say, amid rising demand from makers of batteries, electric cars and wind turbines. Supply constraints threaten to slow countries’ plans to reduce emissions and make them more expensive, they say.

Though off their highs, many mined commodities have hit record prices this year as the global economy bounces back from Covid-19, governments increase spending on infrastructure and supply stutters for some resources. For instance, the price of copper—used in construction and to conduct electricity— has almost doubled over the past 12 months to a record of $10,762 a metric ton earlier this month.

PayoutsSpending on mining projects remains belowthe peak in 2012, while dividend paymentshave risen sharply.Miners' spending on dividends and capitalexpenditureSource: Liberum

billionYEARCapExDividends2009'10'15'200255075100$125

But miners have been reluctant to invest in new projects, analysts and executives say, because their investors have in recent years wanted higher dividends after seeing the sector burn through cash during the last commodity bull run. That hesitancy is now raising the specter of supply crunches.

“We are starting to see some pinch points appear in the key energy-transition metals, copper and platinum group metals for example, where there is very little new supply ready to fill the gap,” says Anglo American NGLOY 3.40% PLC Chief Financial Officer Stephen Pearce.

“You have to continuously reinvest to keep filling your resources cupboard, and it takes many years to bring new mines to fruition,” he adds. London-listed Anglo has been among the bigger spenders on new and existing projects in recent years.

Overall, though, spending across the industry isn’t keeping pace with demand and is expected to lead to shortfalls for many resources, analysts say. Capital spending is set to fall by 6% among major diversified mining companies and 10% among copper miners this year, according to analysts’ consensus.

Meanwhile, the total demand for copper is forecast to increase 40% by 2030—with so-called green demand jumping by as much as 900%—according to Goldman Sachs Group, leaving a supply shortfall of 8.2 million metric tons. Even as copper prices have rallied over the past 12 months, no material new mines have been approved, it added.


Large shortages of lithium, a key component of batteries for electric cars and energy storage, are expected by analysts. A lithium mine’s brine pool in Chile’s Atacama Desert.PHOTO: IVAN ALVARADO/REUTERS
At current metal prices, Rio Tinto RIO 3.47% PLC, BHP Group Ltd., Anglo American and Glencore GLNCY 5.44% PLC could this year generate a combined $140 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to Royal Bank of Canada. That compares with $44 billion in 2015, a year when metals prices were at or near lows.

To be sure, there has been investment in some areas of mining, particularly in the iron ore market. But miners’ focus has been on returning cash to investors.

Capital expenditure, including money spent on current and future production, rose 30% to $75 billion last year among 45 of the world’s largest miners, according to investment bank Liberum, while dividends nearly doubled to $66.1 billion. The capital spend was a third lower than in 2012, at the end of the last commodity bull run, while dividends were 125% higher, Liberum says.

Hey Big SpenderThe world's large miners spend billions ofdollars each year on new and existing mines.Top six CapEx spenders last yearSource: Liberum

BHPRio TintoAngloAmericanValeGlencoreNorilskNickel$0 billion$2.5$5$7.5$10

Miners are returning more money to investors, analysts and executives say, after overspending on projects and acquisitions during that last run, which lasted for a decade. Investors then deserted the sector, some miners went bankrupt, and many chief executives lost their jobs.

“Investors remain very conscious the last bear cycle was driven by an overbuild of new capacity,” says Robert Crayfourd, who invests in miners at London-based fund CQS New City Investment Managers. “The point is here, that maybe they are being too cautious.”

Some miners admit there isn’t enough cash being spent on new projects.

“Our industry’s capital discipline and decline in exploration success over a number of years means there are fewer high-quality growth projects in the industry pipeline to meet this demand,” BHP’s Chief Executive Mike Henry told an industry conference last week.

Barrick Gold Corp. GOLD -2.01% CEO Mark Bristow has recently complained that investor clamor for dividends means the industry isn’t replacing what is being mined.

While analysts expect miners to start investing more in new projects if commodity prices remain elevated, mines typically take 10 to 15 years to develop. That has prompted some analysts and executives to worry that shortfalls could hurt governments’ attempts to drive down carbon emissions.


A mining operation in Finland, whose roller conveyor for mined ore is shown, provides nickel for electric-car batteries.PHOTO: ALESSANDRO RAMPAZZO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
To achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, there needs to be a quadrupling of the supply of minerals needed for clean-energy technologies by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. The Biden administration this year rejoined the accord, which calls for cutting emissions enough to limit the rise in global temperature to less than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

“The data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realizing those ambitions,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in a report last month.

For instance, the Paris-based energy watchdog says expected supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet only half of projected lithium and cobalt requirements by 2030. Both metals are key components of batteries for electric cars and energy storage.

“This will likely mean that decarbonization could cost more than is currently estimated and will be a structurally inflationary force for some time,” says Tyler Broda, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada.

Tech Companies Depend on China for Rare Earths. Can That Change?

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Tech Companies Depend on China for Rare Earths. Can That Change?

Neodymium is critical to making the wheels of a Tesla spin or creating sound in Apple’s Airpods, and China dominates the mining and processing of this rare-earth element. So the U.S. and its allies are building their own supply chain. Photo illustration: Clément Bürge/WSJ
Write to Alistair MacDonald at alistair.macdonald@wsj.com

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the May 26, 2021, print edition as 'Mining Owners Hesitate To Invest.'



To: robert b furman who wrote (7516)5/30/2021 12:50:24 PM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13794
 
Hi Bob !
CAPEX takes the center stage

“The Capex Collapse,” after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the US in 2017, many companies chose to use their newfound profits to buy back their own shares. But now companies are focusing on real assets to achieve growth and stay competitive



Capex Takes Center Stage

Capital expenditure continues to see an acceleration from 2020 into 2021, thanks to consumer spending.

MAY 03, 2021 Author: CHARLES WALLACE
One of the key measures business leaders have been eyeing closely to gauge the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been capital expenditures (capex), which took a huge hit in the first two quarters of 2020. The good news is that capex has been enjoying a boom, even outpacing the rebound in consumer spending.

“I think capex was one of the surprising areas of resilience in the last quarter of 2020, and the latest indicators point to solid capex growth right through the first quarter as well,” says Joe Lupton, economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York.

Lupton says that while consumer-goods spending slumped in November and December due to the second wave in US infections over Thanksgiving and Christmas, capex spending actually expanded at about 1.5% a month in the same period. The rest of the world has been slower to recover than the US economy, but there are signs that capex is ramping up elsewhere as well.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, nonresidential US fixed investment, the government’s measure of capex, rose from $2.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2020 to $2.7 trillion in the fourth quarter, just shy of the pre-pandemic level reached in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Lupton says two factors were mainly behind the capex surge: increased corporate profits and the huge fiscal stimuli that governments around the world have been pumping into their economies to fuel a rebound after the devastation of the pandemic.

As Global Finance detailed in a September 2019 cover story, “The Capex Collapse,” after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the US in 2017, many companies chose to use their newfound profits to buy back their own shares. But now companies are focusing on real assets to achieve growth and stay competitive.

While capex spending is growing in most areas of the economy, two areas stand out: tech and renewable energy. The one area where capex is lagging is real estate. While investment in structures like warehouses and office buildings is considered a capital expenditure, the pandemic has upended building plans for many companies—with an estimated third of the workforce toiling remotely, companies have put expansion plans on hold in many cases.

Similarly, the work-from-home phenomenon added jet fuel to the tech sector: Demand for cloud servers, laptops and 5G cellphones exploded. Car companies, fearing a sales debacle in early 2020, slashed orders for the semiconductors that steer and control the latest vehicles and now find that there are no chips available.

As a result of the soaring demand, one of the largest contributors to capex recently has been the race to build new chip fabrication plants. Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing, the world’s largest contract chip maker, says it is planning to invest $100 billion in the next three years in new facilities, including $25 billion to $28 billion in 2021. South Korea’s Samsung is investing $116 billion by 2030, and Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger says the company is committed to spending $20 billion to build two fabs in Texas.

“The semiconductor content of devices keeps increasing, and every time companies move to smaller process geometry, it’s even more expensive than their last investment,” says Adrienne Downey, director of Technology Research at Semico Research in Phoenix, Arizona, referring to the shrinking of semiconductor designs. “The tools that they have to buy to make the semiconductors keep getting more expensive, so we expect that capital spending is going to increase over time.”

There’s also a political dimension to the rush to invest in new fabrication plants. Because of limits placed on Chinese firms by the Trump administration, companies are expanding production in the US. In addition to the two new Intel plants, TSMC is building a $12 billion facility in Arizona.

In addition, President Biden on March 31 proposed a $2 trillion infrastructure plan that includes $50 billion to provide incentives for building new semiconductor facilities in the US, including a National Semiconductor Technology Center. The US Senate is considering a separate Chips for America Act that would provide $30 billion to build domestic semiconductor facilities.

Although it is too early to know whether Biden’s proposed plan will be adopted and in what form, analysts believe it could touch off a huge ramp-up in capital investments as companies take advantage of what is predicted to be a sharp increase in growth.

“Clear beneficiaries of an infrastructure bill would be sectors sensitive to ‘picks-and-shovels’ capex,” says Savita Subramanian, a quant and equity strategist at Bank of America, referring to industrial companies and metal producers. In a note to investors, she added that the infrastructure bill is likely to boost capex because US equipment is aging, companies haven’t fully invested in technology and capacity utilization is rising to levels that normally come before accelerating capex, and also because of the “reshoring trend,” with companies like Intel moving facilities back to the US from abroad.

The other major area of capital investment is renewable energy. While investments in extraction industries have been cut back, there is a major global effort to encourage adoption of renewable-energy sources, with government subsidies helping private sector utilities and other firms rapidly increase their investments.

“It is not only demand for clean power, but after Covid-19 companies and governments want to build back better, so we are seeing a lot of momentum in the renewable space,” says Audun Martinsen, head of Energy Service Research at Oslo, Norway–based Rystad Energy.

Martinsen says he expects capex on renewables to reach $243 billion this year, growing at an annual compound growth rate of 17%. While wind turbines currently account for 650 gigawatts of installed capacity compared with 346 gigawatts of solar generation, Martinsen says solar is now receiving far more investment than wind and is expected to reach 743 gigawatts by 2025. The largest share of the renewable investments is taking place in Asia—in China, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, he says.

Rob Subbaraman, head of Global Macro Research at Nomura in Singapore, says the renewable boom in Asia is being driven by government policy, with countries such as Singapore, Korea and China leading the way. “There will be a lot of incentives for the private sector, such as carbon taxes,” Subbaraman says. “There will be fewer and fewer incentives to do brown investments because of carbon taxes, and as the cost of pollution goes up.”

In general, Subbaraman says that the boom in capex is just starting to take shape in Asia, and he expected the trend to become clearer in the second half of the year.