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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	4/23/2021 9:51:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC down 25%>> Am guessing BTC now has more upside than downside, unless Satoshi's stash comes onto the open market (1) Just bought another lot of BTC, ETH, and DOGE, the savings bitgold, the software token, and the joke, respectively The wobble of crypto / 3D-world financial markets are god-sent, to reward savers, offer an early-days invest, and have a good laugh All three placements should offer protection against protection against ramping dilution of fiats (2) In the stock account I went ... (2-i) further long COIN by short Put May 21st strike 265, and am happy that COIN listed during onset of a bear market (2-ii) rolled MSTR (lowered strike price from 700 to 640, stretched out term from now to mid-July, and collected money $18 per share for waiting to roll again, as I did not wish to pay 700 for MSTR last night when I can just wait and collect, so as to be able to again collect July given its high implied volatility. I am guessing that I shall never be put MSTR shares, and simply use it as energy-pump to product goodness by its junction position between universe and metaverse)

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	4/24/2021 4:55:38 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC down 25%>> 50K is such an elegant number. Thanks to Team Biden allowing an opportunity. bloomberg.com Bitcoin’s Big Selloff Was a Long Time Coming: Investors React 23 April 2021, 20:48 GMT+8 Bitcoin has rewarded investors with massive gains all year, but now the cryptocurrency’s famous volatility is back. The token plunged below $50,000 in Friday trading for its worst week in almost two months as a proposed tax hike for wealthy Americans intensifies an industry selloff. While the digital token is known for its big price swings, this latest bout has been particularly head-spinning after the all-time high notched on April 14. Still, talk to investors and analysts and many will say it was a long time coming -- with last week’s rally in the satirical Dogecoin and the eye-watering valuation for Coinbase Global Inc. clear signs of market froth. Here’s what market players are saying about the crypto slump. Comments have been edited and condensed. Ulrik Lykke, executive director at crypto hedge fund ARK36 “Throughout April, the markets have been slightly overheated due to a large number of margin and leveraged traders. This caused a runup and the correction was only to be expected. In addition, traders’ anxiety and the overall emotional nature of the crypto markets also may have played a role. “Notably, though, the price of Bitcoin fell only 25% from the recent all-time high and there are reasons to believe the overall trend will remain bullish unless the price drops below $40,000.” Felix Dian, founder of crypto investment fund MVPQ Capital “Looking at the previous bull cycle (2016/17), there have been quite a few occurrences when Bitcoin loses momentum and dips below the 100-day moving average. This one was overdue. “We are actually seeing record subscriptions into our fund this month, from institutional family offices, with many willing to use this as an opportunity to add. Ultimately, strong hands buying will meet the lack of available liquid supply of Bitcoin, triggering a squeeze and further down the road a new retail FOMO wave.” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA “The threat of regulation, either directly in developed markets or indirectly via the taxman, has always been crypto’s Achilles’s heel. “Hopefully, we will hear as many ‘experts’ saying this is a sign of Bitcoin becoming a ‘maturing mainstream asset’ if it falls 10% this weekend, as we do when it rises, or a crypto-exchange chooses to IPO. In the meantime, don’t hate me for being bearish Bitcoin in the near term.” Nikolaos Panitgirtzoglou, strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co “Institutional demand has indeed slowed. I’m not sure what could trigger a re-acceleration of institutional demand. You either need a big announcement like Tesla or simply a correction and clearing of retail froth to incentivise institutional investors to re-enter the market.” Philip Gradwell, chief economist of Chainalysis, a crypto research firm “The Coinbase listing was the end of the beginning for crypto. So what do such price movements in the first week of a new phase mean? To be honest, I don’t think they mean that much. “Prices are still historically high and the fall over the weekend appears to have been a fairly standard reversal after peak prices, which was magnified by three factors. First, the liquidation of a record number of leveraged bets. Second, there had been a build up of Bitcoin on exchanges, which is typical when people are waiting to see if the price will continue to rise or reverse. When it reversed these holders likely rapidly sold. Third, all of this happened in an illiquid weekend market that appeared to have relatively few buyers.” — With assistance by Yakob Peterseil, Joanna Ossinger, and Anchalee Worrachate Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	4/25/2021 6:14:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC down 25%. Half way to down 50%>> Let us see if Willy is correct. His letter has been very good so far. Below is fresh off of the grill. #forecast 017 : Tripping the power cordWelcome to The Bitcoin Forecast #017. Since my last letter, price reached an all-time-high above $64k with heightened speculation in long positions. Speculators then sold the price down as the Bitcoin network suffered a loss of hash rate as a result of power outages feeding many of the miners located in China. This ended in $4.9b in long liquidations plummeting price momentarily as low as $51k before settling at $55k. Under weakened price action a second wave of sell off, this time from spot market investors from pushed price to $50k. Top level summary for 25th April 2021 (current price $50.0k): Short term: A bottom signature pervades. Price is now at the estimated price floor supported by long term investors. Overleveraged speculation has been flushed from the system. Buyers have stepped in. There may be a little down side in short time frame dips, but overall the fundamentals point to price climb. The bottom is in, or very close to it. Long term: Price is in an extended consolidation band. This remains unchanged since the last forcast. IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will be on Paternity Leave in May, once this goes into effect billing will be paused on your subscription until such time as this letter resumes. This letter marks the 6-month mark of this quantitative analysis letter being in existence. For the second half of this year I intend to change the format of this letter, I’ve opened up a discussion in the comments section of the last letter. It’s there you’ll find the reasons why and I’m open to your feedback moving forward. Analysis Breakdown Price has hit the floor modelFloor price model is currently steady at $50.0k, price has hit this price as of the latest close on 24th April. The capital flows into the network (from which the floor model is based) is forming a bottom pattern, so it's quite likely the bottom of this correction has formed. This is the first time we've hit the price floor in 2021 that's to say the price is now 0% overheated and we are now at the fundamental price that long term investors will support. Interestingly in the 2017 bull market we hit this floor three times. Exchange flows have reversed Exchange flows were heavily bearish 21st - 23rd April. This was the cause of the second leg of the price sell-off. These flows have now reversed, providing buying support. I’d note that the reaction of the market to bearish exchange flows was very fast, the fastest I've seen. I take that as a sign of heightened fear in the market, with price having already weathered a speculative sell-off on derivative markets as a result of miners losing hash rate in China. The average size of withdrawals from the exchanges is now larger than deposits, that’s to say we have larger buyers and smaller sellers; another sign of recovery. Coins that were sold were young The coins that were dumped this last week were very young. That’s to say these coins were bought recently and therefore arguably sold by less experienced investors. Typically dips in coin dormancy have signals bottoms. Profit taking nearing an end Entity-adjusted-SOPR is very close to a full reset, the coins being moved between investors are now carrying minimal profit for the sellers. The market will need to be willing to sell coins at a loss to take prices lower, this is not seen much in a bull market. This is another signal implying we are very close to a bottom. Hash rate hash been restored to the network The hash rate drop that was the culprit for the initial speculative sell-off has now been restored. Speculative markets are still in fear and indecision The large quantity of speculative long positions we had for weeks has now been reset, as seen below with funding rates for long positions being very neutral. Contracts (open interest) in the system is also at local lows unseen since March. There is no longer any overheatedness on derivative markets. Usually a good bottom indicator (be greedy when the market is fearful). I’ll also mention the orderbooks on spot exchanges show thick demand for buys directly under the current price.

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	4/29/2021 8:37:28 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC>> billion-bitcoin-options-expire-friday-heres-what-that-means $3.6 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Friday. Here's What That Means The expiries could help budge the price of Bitcoin upward. By Jeff Benson In brief - Crypto derivatives exchange is sitting on $3.6 billion in ticking BTC options. - Bitcoin is currently hovering near the "max pain price" for options holders. About $3.6 billion in Bitcoin options are due to expire tomorrow, giving speculators their last chance to either buy the asset at a predetermined price or sell. If many investors choose the latter, expect to see more Bitcoin available in the market. If they exercise their option, it could push the price up. Data from Arcane Research pegs the number of expiring options contracts at 68,500 BTC on unregulated Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange in the world. Arcane asserts the “max pain price” to be $54,000. Max pain refers to the price at which the cumulative value of the options still held is the lowest. In other words, traders don’t get much of a discount compared to just buying Bitcoin on the open market—but they do experience financial losses from having bought the options and let them expire. Bitcoin’s price has fallen in the last 48 hours from $54,800 to $52,900, meaning that exercising the option will be a gametime decision for many. “Given how bitcoin is currently trading around the max pain price of the April options expiry, it does seem neither bullish nor bearish for Bitcoin in the short term,” Arcane Research analyst Vetle Lunde told Decrypt via direct message. “On the flip side, this is the favourable expiry price for all option sellers, so they’d like prices to remain at these levels until expiry on Friday.” Bitcoin options contracts—which give traders a chance (but not the obligation) to buy BTC at a set price, can typically be traded up until the last Friday of each month. They offer different price levels at which traders can pull the trigger and buy the asset. Of course, each contract is structured differently, with different buy prices, depending on when it was bought. In February, when $3.3 billion in options contracts were due to expire, Bequant head of research Denis Vinokourov told Decrypt, “Options flows are not yet at the size where they can move the market.” In Vinokourov’s estimation, there was more BTC HODLing than buying and selling at that point, meaning the trading would have a neutral effect on prices. Lunde says that trend is continuing, especially after the mid-April crash, when the price of Bitcoin fell from a high above $63,000 down to $49,000 in 10 days. “In general, there seems to be more holding right now, than earlier in April,” he said. However, he does see some chance that the expiries will move the market. “We've seen Bitcoin rallying with force following all monthly options expiries in 2021, so the market action suggests that large expiries provide a short-term anchor for the price,” he said. That’s a point that Rob Levy, the co-founder of crypto trading platform Hxro, agreed with. According to Levy, the price of Bitcoin has a habit of dipping beforethe options expirations and then rising up again. “It is interesting to note that this date has marked a localized low point in price for all of the past 5 months,” he said. Ekin Genç contributed reporting for this article. DisclaimerThe views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	5/1/2021 8:41:21 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217670

Back to main program bloomberg.com Bitcoin Rises to Two-Week High After Breaking Technical Barrier Vildana Hajric 1 May 2021, 00:40 GMT+8 Bitcoin surged to its highest levels since mid-April after surpassing a closely-watched technical hurdle. The digital token climbed above its average price over the past 50 days, a measure of its short-term momentum. For chart watchers, that had been an important level -- such a move usually portends further gains. Many analysts will now look to see if it can sustainably stay above it. Earlier: Bitcoin Is at Technical Inflection Point Amid Recent Selloff Trading in the world’s largest digital asset has been choppy in recent weeks after it hit a record high in mid-April above $64,000. It’s come down since then amid sessions that have clocked large intraday swings. On Friday, Bitcoin was up about 7.6% to $57,006 as of 12:29 p.m. in New York. What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter. But despite recent turbulence, interest in cryptocurrencies has skyrocketed amid Bitcoin’s trek to all-time highs. A growing number of traditional Wall Street firms have warmed to it and it’s received endorsements from celebrities like Elon Musk. Assets in digital-asset products listed globally, including ETFs and ETPs, reached $9 billion at the end of the first quarter, a record high, according to ETFGI. “If you make an investment today or you make an investment in early December, like we did, you have to expect multiple 20% to 30% pullbacks in the bull-market phase,” Troy Gayeski of Skybridge Capital said this week on Bloomberg TV. “But that being said, I mean, the combination of extraordinary supply growth, we still think we’re in the early innings of the adoption cycle.” Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence agrees that adoption is in its early days and says Bitcoin appears to be the right fit for today’s rapidly changing digital world. He sees catalysts that could take it to $100,000. “Diminishing supply juxtaposed with historically low interest rates and the substantial amount of money being pumped into the system is a solid foundation for Bitcoin price appreciation, if the rules of economics apply,” he wrote in a note. — With assistance by Kenneth Sexton Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	5/3/2021 8:14:04 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC>> We are looking good to go for the next leg, and should BTC touch 100K, all feeding frenzy should break out as WS players get ahead of each other to front-run the operating companies to bum-rush, akin to a bar fight when lights dim and weapons in view Existential dangers focus minds We should break 60K in a matter of days if not hours. Once there, 65k shall assuredly be breached again. dailyhodl.com Bitcoin Perfectly Set Up for Leap Towards $100,000, Says Crypto Analyst PlanB A widely-followed analyst known for being the first to apply the stock-to-flow model (S2F) to Bitcoin says that BTC has just created a perfect setup for a spike up to $100,000. The S2F, traditionally used in commodities markets like precious metals, compares the price of an asset versus the amount of new supply. Plan B has amassed a massive following with the stunning accuracy of the S2F and the S2FX, a variation of the S2F, which also takes into account gold and silver’s performance to reach a price estimation for Bitcoin. In a new tweet, Plan B notes that a new colored dot, representing the close of another month on the S2FX model, is slightly down from last month, looking like a potential slingshot upward into the six figures. “New dot… slightly down after 6 months up… looks like the perfect setup for jump towards $100,000. April close $57,200 March close $58,782 Feb close $45,240 Jan close $33,141 Dec close $28,992 Nov close $19,700 Oct close $13,816 Sep close $10,778.” The pseudonymous trader also says that Bitcoin’s momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), just broke its way above 90. “Bitcoin monthly RSI 90… so what do you think, 95 soon?” According to PlanB, the 2011, 2013, and 2017 bull markets were in full swing when the RSI hit above 95. PlanB adds the current bull run looks less like the 2017 cycle, and more like the 2013 one which had a considerably more parabolic rally. Despite Bitcoin’s already impressive performance in 2021, Plan B asserts that the boom cycle of the world’s largest crypto asset by market cap is likely far from over. “Just to confirm that both S2FX model and on-chain signals indicate we are only halfway into this bull market and nowhere near the top.” Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get crypto email alerts delivered directly to you

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	5/3/2021 11:03:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	3 Recommendations Recommended By emmat1 frankl kingfisher Respond to of 217670

Just in in-tray, an 89-pager, internet-money porn from global macro investor (Raoul Pal) sexy, like the lifeguard girl at the pool when one is not dying life saving otherwise

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	5/5/2021 10:15:23 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC>> ... some porn for anti-bitcoiners so many faults w/ the argument that I shall not bother to refute, but never the less a fun-read am not ashamed of Chen Zhao. I feel pity. alpinemacro.com

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	5/12/2021 8:23:22 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217670

Re <<BTC down>> Perfectly good brand fresh and secondhand / pre-used bitcoins on sale. Intending to buy some this day.

To: Follies who wrote (170907)	5/16/2021 4:47:37 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217670

I cannot tell if the video cited is outside of paywall, but should watch, as it eventually talks about coming apps based on the BTC network puts and calls, with collateral, etc etc sexy stuff realvision.com In the meantime someone might be hacking Elon Musk bloomberg.com ‘Elon Musk PhD’ Highlights Opacity of U.K.’s Company Register Thomas Seal 15 May 2021, 13:30 GMT+8 Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here. On May 3, the U.K.’s official business register showed a new company called Elonspace Ltd with a sole director by the name of “Elon Musk Phd.” The entry lists the same birth month and nationality as those belonging to the world’s second-richest man. There the similarities end. Musk dropped out of his doctorate program after two days and never earned a PhD. The filing on Britain’s Companies House database gives Musk’s country of residence as England, and a correspondence address of a tower block in West London used for student accommodation. The day's biggest storiesGet caught up with the Evening Briefing. Companies House is a vital hub of information on U.K. businesses, where firms are required to file accounts and name their directors. Although often used as a tool to conduct due diligence on companies, the registry has been under criticism for opaque filings. In 2018 an English businessman became the first person to be successfully prosecuted for submitting deliberately false filings to the database. “We have a legal duty to place on the register information that is filed by companies and represents what is in their own company registers,” a spokeswoman for Companies House said by email. “At present we have limited powers to verify the accuracy of information that is provided to us. Where there is evidence that false information has been knowingly filed however, we will take action.” It’s unclear who is behind Elonspace Ltd, which describes itself on Companies House as a business with activities in computer facilities management, information technology, and data processing. Elonspace Ltd was registered in the U.K. the same week as posts on social media began promoting a cryptocurrency token by that name. “We can not reveal any classified information about the company, nor the people involved,” a representative for the crypto venture said in response to an emailed request for comment via its website. “This would violate our NDA,” they added, without responding to follow-up questions. Stavros Modestou, co-founder of the token, said he couldn’t comment on the U.K.-incorporated entity. “Our token is community driven and we will only reveal more info about the companies and people behind it after we reach our milestones,” he said by email. “We are not going to reveal who is backing our project yet.” Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer of Tesla Inc., could not be reached for comment on whether or not he has founded a U.K. company registered to an address mainly used for university dormitories. Communications staff at Space Exploration Technologies Corp., owned by Musk, did not respond to requests for comment. Musk has a separate Companies House entry for a brief directorship of the company Surrey Satellite Technology from 2005 to 2008, which a spokeswoman for that company said was authentic. — With assistance by Rob Dawson Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE