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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glass House who wrote (14113)	2/3/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

I haven't seen the latest numbers by Bear Stearn, which I think go out 5 years from now. In Nov 1996 Robertson Stephens projected out 10 years. I have to dig them out, but as I recall, the first profit was in 2000 and was $0.10. It then rose pretty dramatically, to $14.55 in 2006 (using 50 million fully diluted shares). Bear Stearns and LGND are predicting a profit in 1999. Some of the Bear Stearns' data is linked at home.att..net/~hniman/lgnd/lgndl3.htm I haven't seen the report, but a gain of $0.09 in 1999 and $1.76 in 2003 has been posted which isn't that far off from Robertson Stephens' projections (I think that by 2003 EPS was expected to grow at about 100% per year which would take the $1.76 in 2003 to $14.00 in 2006).

To: Glass House who wrote (14113)	2/3/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Speaking of earnings estimates, LGND IR suggests that new figures will be coming out soon from more analysts (In addition to Bear Stearns, Robertson Stephens, Lehman Brother, and H&Q currently cover LGND, but I suspect more will be hopping on board - LGND's price is very cheap, NDAs are being filed, and IND are being started (at no cost to LGND), so it's a good time right now.

To: Glass House who wrote (14113)	2/3/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Be careful if trying to catch a falling knife -- you can get cut.

To: Glass House who wrote (14113)	2/5/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

I did dig out the RS 10 year projections (made on 11/26/96) and as I suspected, the RS estimates made in 1996 are similar to the Bear Stearns' numbers of Dec 31, 1997 (made for 2003). The latest estimate by Bear Stearns for 1999 shows a profit of $0.09 and today's press release also predicts a profit in 1999. RS shows a loss of $0.68. Profits don't show up until 2000 ($0.10). After that, the numbers are: 2001 $0.45 2002 $0.60 2003 $1.80 2004 $5.00 2005 $10.65 2006 $14.55