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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (11253)	5/11/2021 10:22:57 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26631

We know this always happens at tops... our capital equipment stocks stop going up and drop a lot making them appear great values using the analysts' estimates for growth and profit. Then we learn the orders soared due to double and triple booking and when the slowdown comes, orders are cancelled and growth turns negative to suddenly justify the price drops... then eventually the low profits and low or negative growth makes the stocks look expensive and overvalued, usually near major bottoms or at least great times to buy. Trouble is you can't tell if the first big 30% or so pullback is the start of THE BIG DECLINE or just healthy corrections after exponential gains. So, investors use things like employment and interest rates to judge this.