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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PAinvestor who wrote (27718)	2/3/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

PA I am impressed with your writing ! Welcome to the micron BB To everyone....click this persons name and read his past postings on CYMER! This is a Micron Bull that can "out write" any and all bears ! Welcome again and I hope you visit when you can ! You are way over my head on FA !!!! Could this be the hired gun the bulls have been waiting for (g) Larry Dudash

To: PAinvestor who wrote (27718)	2/3/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

>>They are cutting back their capex by 70% this year.<< please cite your source that shows this. btw, a long while back i saw the taiwanese were spending about $80 billion this year on expansion. you failed to mention this. if supply is being decreased so much then why does amat trade at a pe of nearly 30? do you not see some incongruous information here? do you not see that it needs to be addressed? 16 mb is a mugs game. 64 mb is the show and mu is nowhere. >>At the same time demand is growing constantly and we will soon find ourselves in a situation where demand soon outstrips supply.<< yes, and this won't occur until we hit a bottom in sentiment and stay there for a while. why? businesses are nothing more than investors. when investors have euphoria like they do with the money losing mu so do other dram players. txn said they were going to stay in the dram biz. so have others. taiwan may increase capacity as they also see the profits rolling in shortly (just like you do). btw, when 64 mb chips are the standard, supply goes up over 200% in one fell swoop. one dolt of an analyst said that dram demand was growing 10%. since his other facts were wrong i wasn't surprised that this one was too. demand is, and has been, strong. it hasn't meant much to mu's bottom line. pa, please on me not knowing the fundamentals. i've been dead on. when everyone said mu was making $3.00+ in 1998 i said they would be lucky to be breakeven. and they will. i've whooped the analysts by 100s of %s in eps estimates. you have bought their story hook line and sinker. they were wrong in 1996. they were wrong in 1997. and they are wrong about 1998. but, at least we have you on record so when mu melts down we will know you were wrong. and don't run from your record when you are wrong like some ;-)

To: PAinvestor who wrote (27718)	2/3/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

PA, the real reason that MU was up today (don't believe what you read in the financial wires) was that the front page of the Nikkei Shinbun in Japan ran an article stating that Hyundai Electronics will stop producing 16meg DRAM from February. Interesting Analysis. I was surprised that MU had as much of a runup as it did today considering the past 4 weeks gain. This story may actually be the cause...true or not. I am interested in that rumour about Hyundai. If after the bell they refuted it, does that mean that there is a near term retracement in the next few days? I would not mind that. Went long twice today but always got out too early and added to 4 day old PUTS which obviously are showing some loss.<g> Short term MU looks overbought and a 10-15% retracement might be healthy. What do you think? Really great to see you here, you walked into one of the largest Bear Dens on the SI.<G> DavidG

To: PAinvestor who wrote (27718)	2/4/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

PA, agree w/ your long-term assessment, but I'd offer that there's a certain cyclicality to the market for this particular security that is only tangential to the fundamental realities. Some people share your views and are legitimately investing, but IMHO this appears to be a stock with a very high "winky, winky" factor. You bring up another interesting data point that fits in w/ the "replay of the August 1997 short squeeze" hypothesis: the front page of the Nikkei Shinbun in Japan ran an article stating that Hyundai Electronics will stop producing 16meg DRAM from February I seem to recall that some of the Asian players were reported to be doing the exact same thing around the first week of August 1997. Call the below table "Anatomy of a short-squeeze" or "Deja MU": Jul/Aug 1997 Jan/Feb 1998 Conference Robbie Stephens Montgomery Presentation The analyst of the Dan Niles John Joseph host firm touts it the next day "Big wheels" pile on Tom Kurlak Ralph Acampora one week after the presentation Reports of Asian Yes Yes competitors stopping production? Follows brief rally in DRAM pricing? Yes Yes Peaks @ roughly Yes ? 50% high-low retracement Obviously it's foolish to expect that the exact same peak followed by drop will occur (as I'm hard pressed to think of anything remotely similar to TK's reversal), but I find the parallels interesting. Good trading, Tom