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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33619)	6/14/2021 8:55:05 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34328

XLU entry point: Most LTB&H advice says it does not matter what your entry point is. Just buy when you can, and hold forever. I disagree. Entry price matters crucially for LT returns. For example: say you bought XLU 10 years ago, and held till today. So, you bought in 2011. That year, the price ranged from 20.9$ to 26.2$ If you bought at the low, your gains today are 66.2-20.9/20.9=217%. If you bought at the high, your gains are 66.2-26.2/26.2=153%. That is a difference. Stocks that deliver consistent dividends also tend to be good for cap gains. Entry point matters. Assumptions/predictions: 1. interest rates: 0% short-term continues indefinitely. Long-term rates up (10Y treasuries to 4% next 1-2 years). High-yield bonds up more. 2. outside of recession years, XLU will continue to return about 11%/y = 8% cap gain + 3% dividend). The range of yearly cap gains is 0-20%. The range of yearly dividend yield is 3-4%. 3. XLU will be in a channel 90% of the time, defined by 4% below and 8% above the 200dma. 4. bull market continues next few years. We have a recession every 10 years or so. Next due 2030, when the U.S. President sends a 30,000$ check to every citizen during her re-election campaign, then defaults on the U.S. debt. Bitcoin and copper compete to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Disclosure: no current or prior position. I have cash which is earning 0.000003% interest (thanks to Fed manipulation of interest rates). I want this money to earn something, but without much risk. OK, so I should have bought at the 2020 low of 42. At the time, I was in my basement, masked, desperately short of toilet paper, texting friends about funeral arrangements for their husbands. I was not thinking about my stock portfolio. Plan: buy in increments, beginning when XLU is at its 200dma (now at $62.50). Fully in at 4% below the 200dma. Sell my highest-cost purchase when I can get out even or at a profit, and XLU is above its 200dma. Hold my lowest-cost shares, and add when the price is low.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (33619)	7/6/2021 6:53:29 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 34328

SCCO = Southern Copper 48b market cap 4.4% = 2.80/62 = forward yield $4.27 = 2021 EPS estimate. 10.5b$ 2021 revenue estimate 2.7b$ cash, 6.5b$ LT debt, as of 3/2021 BBB+ credit rating 773m shares, no change for many years 950,000 tons 2021 copper production 1,900,000 tons 2028 copper production (company guidance) The dividend varies with EPS, which depends almost entirely on the price of copper, and how much copper they produce. Other things being equal, doubling copper production between now and 2028 should double the dividend. Estimates from various sources say global copper production will increase 3%/y long term. SCCO is an outlier, in their guidance for production increase. It takes 10 years, from greenfield to full production, for new copper mines. Estimates for global copper demand vary. If the world ignores global warming: 3%/y. If the world gets serious, and car companies build all the EVs they say they are, and solar/wind continues to build out, and the grid gets robustly upgraded, then demand will increase 6%/y long term. If demand rises faster than supply, today’s high prices will be sustainable LT. Copper is an element, with elemental properties, so there is no good alternative. Aluminum is the best substitute, but it is less conductive, less ductile, and has different thermal expansion properties. There are very few big unexploited hi-grade copper deposits left anywhere. Another one is Kamba-kakula, in the DRC. Ivanhoe, with a Chinese partner, owns it. But the DRC has been a failed state since forever, so this is a gamble. SCCO’s mines are in Mexico and Peru. It is almost impossible to permit new mines in politically stable places (example: Pebble mine mining-technology.com. Disclosure: no position yet