Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (173709)	6/26/2021 7:38:43 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218347

Re Perhaps China in answering to the call of duty per Basal III can do something useful with its difficult problem Maybe the reason Macron called for sale of EU gold is because EU needs to guide Bank of China and cohort to buy gold, as the elephants must be detoured away from collecting Euro irrespective of yield which would build to another problem down the sorry road when the Euro needs dumping. bloomberg.com China Banks Stockpile Record $1 Trillion of Foreign Exchange 25 June 2021, 16:32 GMT+8 Chinese banks’ stockpile of foreign-currency deposits has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, creating an opportunity for Beijing to allow greater freedom for capital to flow out of the country. The pool has been growing as surging demand for Chinese goods during the pandemic has beefed up foreign earnings of exporters, while the resilient economy and strengthening currency have lured overseas investors to sell dollars for yuan to buy Chinese stocks and bonds. Bank deposits in foreign currencies jumped more than $260 billion in the year through May, the most in data starting in 2002. Then a mismatch sets in: despite the increase in inflows, Chinese banks don’t have many channels to utilize their foreign exchange. One way is to sell it onshore, but that adds pressure for the yuan to strengthen. The currency is already trading near a five-year high against a basket of its peers -- adding urgency for Beijing to reform its foreign-exchange market and ease capital controls, moves that will act as a pressure-relief valve by letting local investors buy more overseas assets. “Strong capital inflows offer a good window for China to carry out capital-account reforms and relax two-way capital flows,” said Linan Liu, greater China macro strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. “I expect further relaxation of capital outflows via investment schemes.” China’s commercial lenders had a record $1.38 trillion of foreign exchange by the end of May, with the majority being held in deposits, according to the People’s Bank of China. Lenders used most of the cash to make loans to firms onshore and overseas, the data showed. The PBOC’s foreign reserves also rose to a five-year high last month. The accumulation was a result of rapid capital inflows. Overseas investors snapped up 1 trillion yuan ($154 billion) of onshore bonds over the past year, attracted by the relatively high yields on yuan-denominated debt. At the same time, China’s exports surged as its factories returned to operation while the rest of the world was still mired in the pandemic, boosting its trade surplus to a record. What's moving marketsStart your day with the 5 Things newsletter. One result of the inflows has been to push down dollar deposit rates in China to near all-time lows -- levels that are only about a third of the equivalent funding costs in the U.S. itself. That divergence is motivating banks to buy the yuan versus the dollar, a situation which is worrying Beijing as too strong a currency may invite hot money inflows and hurt Chinese exporters. The onshore yuan gained for a third straight session on Friday, rising as much as 0.3%. The PBOC is already taking steps to reduce dollar liquidity, including easing capital controls put in place following a currency devaluation six years ago. The central bank has increased the quota for investors to buy overseas assets to a record in June, and is expected to establish a trading link for wealth products between the mainland and Hong Kong. An announcement allowing Chinese investors to buy bonds in Hong Kong is also expected soon. Read: Southbound Bond Connect Sets to Debut, Alleviate China Pressures Some officials “may see the foreign-exchange liquidity as a feather in China’s cap, and some may worry that the surge is flighty,” said George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. “It’s fine when the flows are coming in, but a big problem for financial stability when they try and go the other way.” For Magnus, the increase in dollar deposits is “random and most likely temporary,” and will slow when other nations recover from the pandemic. While it lasts though, the situation offers an opportunity for China to implement reforms and loosen its grip over its tightly controlled capital borders. “China will take the chance of flush dollar liquidity to make its cross-border flows more balanced,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. “Policy makers in the coming two to three years will keep widening channels for funds to leave the country.” — With assistance by Tian Chen, Qizi Sun, and Sofia Horta e Costa (Updates with expected announcement on new bond connect in ninth paragraph) Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: sense who wrote (173709)	6/26/2021 8:47:08 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218347

<<Do you find "answers" anywhere in there ?>> I certainly think it's important to bounce ideas around. My instinct is to fade what Jim Rickards says. I cant remember why I felt this at times over the two past decades, but maybe <<Rickards thus tends to overly value... and thus attaches his opinions to... the interest of the insiders who he cultivates for access and depends upon for insider information...>> that was it. <<They're simply wrong about V shaped recovery in mercantilist systems being possible...>> I think you are right about the fragility of systems. The only way to fix those systems is to throw money at them until the problem goes away over a period of time. This will happen naturally from shortages and subsequent price increases, which is an inflationary force. Masks, social distancing, and lockdowns kill productivity. The reverse of "Time and motion" improvements made over the last century and more. The only way to have an alternate reality from that is to crash the market thus bringing down demand. Stagflation looks to be the most likely scenareo barring a full blown crash, which if it ocurred, would blast past any gains since 2008 imho, and maybe way beyond that too imho. An Explanation of Stagflation (investopedia.com) Somebody got chucked under a bus.. Hancock possibly just poisened the phrase "build back better" with his resignation speech. I think that might cause some to question the Covid narrative to date, and now assume the Politicians have been telling a pack of lies. A stark discovery ! and Boris et all, must know this will happen with the development, and have decided that will be the play they run with. But the damage to systems is already in place and solutions will be slow to impliment. So my guesstimate at the moment is continued inflation and a stationary stockmarket and bad news generally for business and employment. Thank you for your views on the matter.