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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (12169)	2/4/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

<< The predictions of 30%/year growth were made several times in the course of those discussions, and I haven't seen any of those folks backtracking since, so I think it continues to be a reasonable estimate >> The people you are referring to might not have backtracked, but C$CO hasn't grown 30% in the last few quarters. Neither has the networking industry. C$CO had sales and EPS gains of only 26 1/2% this last quarter. How is that 30%? C$CO is going to have to grow 35% on average for the next two quarters just to attain the goal of 30% that you are referring to. If you look at the chart I made outlining C$CO's EPS growth of the last 5 quarters you will see that they are heading in the wrong direction. << What's yours? >> I honestly don't have a specific figure. I just don't think C$CO will achieve 30% EPS growth in 1998, and I believe that it is fully valued even if they do.

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (12169)	2/4/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 77400

The predictions of 30%/year growth were made several times in the course of those discussions, and I haven't seen any of those folks backtracking since, Au contrarie - About the same time last year Chambers was all over the media saying he was comfortable with analysts' forecast of 40 to 60% for the industry and higher than industry rate for cisco. He and the analysts changed the tune very soon. I don't know about you, but I call that backtracking. BTW, in 1997 the industry grew at 16% not 30%. (Source, IBD) When the market is flooded with liquidity, thanks to the Feds monitizing the debt and the worldwide stampede for the dollar, you can say 200 illogical reasons for justifying a multiple twice that of growth rate. But, the answer for manic rise in cisco stock price is in too much liquidity and too much stupidity. Arguments such as "Stocks deserve higher (almost any) valuations during peace time," "new-era" etc etc are plain simple BS. -Mohan