To: PeterGx who wrote (7126 ) 2/5/1998 2:44:00 AM From: Don Earl Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
Hi Peter, IMO the one thing a person can count on with YHOO is volatility. The probability that it would trade flat for 6 weeks strikes me as unlikely. The usual investor that takes advise from CNBC and falls in love with a stock because an analyst told them it is wonderful, tends to be the least experienced and the least stable when it comes to holding the price up in the face of institutional selling. The current pattern is what I expect to see when a heavily shorted stock is under distribution by one or more large share holders. The sell offs come in waves after each run up on short covering. Each high and low is lower than the one before. Options expire in about 2 weeks. The most puts and calls that would expire worthless would be at 65 but the damage at 60 and 55 is also substantial. The charts are bear city. MAs crossed and curving down, stochastics crossed down in the mid 70s, and the bar charts look just plain ugly. The big spreads between the bid and ask the last 2 days tends to discourage traders. When you're looking for 1/4 you won't pay 3/8 in both directions to play, and with the rest of the market going up, it doesn't take long for the money to start moving elsewhere. I would also expect to see a series of down grades in coming weeks as institutions close out their positions and start looking for lower entry levels. The lines all point to 50 in a one month time frame. Unless some radical change takes place to change my mind between now and then, I'll stick with that projection. There might be a bounce in the middle someplace, but that's where it looks like it's going right now. I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time, but so far it looks like a good trade. Regards, Don