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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (1204)	2/4/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: Creditman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

I think there will be takeovers soon. Everyone needs capacity so anyone even a little slow is fair game. Other large firms wil buy capacity for their customers and then ditch the existing customers of the company acquired. There is not enough capacity to fill the orders. Who is next? Maybe Altron???

To: kolo55 who wrote (1204)	2/4/1998 7:16:00 PM
From: Scott D.	Respond to of 2542

The sector looks really strong today to the holders of smaller names like IMSX (up 12.3%)and CMCI (up another 2% after resent big moves).

To: kolo55 who wrote (1204)	2/4/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: patroller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

Paul and all of us who in the face of fear believe that the ecm's were still intact,time you to take a bow and read this ,sounds like us.....................CEMs combating a misperception Jim Savage The contracting industry's fourth-quarter financial results, particularly those of top-tier contract electronics manufacturers, were predictably strong. In most cases, results closely mirrored analysts' estimates, which for the six largest public companies in the group showed average year-over-year revenue and earnings-per-share growth of 55% and 102%, respectively. Despite the strong results, CEM stocks remain well below their highs of last fall. Jabil Circuit Inc. and Sanmina Corp., for example, both of which beat the recent quarter's consensus earnings estimates by a small margin and forecast continuing strong growth, have seen their forward multiples shaved by at least 50% since early October. Flying in the face of the conventional wisdom that still considers contract manufacturing to be highly cyclical overflow manufacturing, OEMs appear to be extending and deepening their strategic relationships with their core suppliers. Jabil, Sanmina, and SCI Systems Inc. all exceeded analysts' estimates each quarter in 1996 and 1997. Other industry leaders, including Solectron Corp., Flextronics International, and DII Group Inc., have a level of customer diversity that limits the risk of substantial earnings shortfalls. Beyond the earnings numbers and the growth in core customers are returns on capital ranging from above average to spectacular (return on equity in the top tier ranged from 19% to 39%) and balance sheets capable of financing substantial growth. Some midtier companies have had earnings disappointments, and obviously these smaller companies are rendered more susceptible than their larger peers to customer defections and unwelcome surprises. But despite the lack of negative surprises at the top level and industry leaders' excellent visibility regarding their customers' businesses, investors have largely responded to market uncertainties, particularly those regarding Asia, with knee-jerk reactions. There is no fundamental difference in the P/E multiples of top and midtier CEMs, and the industry as a whole is currently selling at a substantial discount to the market. The CEM industry discount is based on misperception. While investors cite a lack of proprietary technology or OEMs' price sensitivity as risk factors, these are just the factors that ensure continuing growth. Recent CEM financial results - even in the face of Asia, ASP declines, and end-market uncertainty - indicate that the strategic outsourcing phenomenon is alive and well. And a continuing positive outlook bodes well for significant stock price recovery from the recent sell-off. -Jim Savage is an analyst at BT Alex. Brown Inc., New York.

To: kolo55 who wrote (1204)	2/13/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: patroller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

Paul I'am sitting here looking at some of the stocks I follow and thinking how strong the market is,it just will not sell off ,also I notice something qntm and jbil had in common they both were up and they both have big short position's , so here's what that tell's me qntm isn't going up because of how great the disc drive makers are doing their going up because of the short position,I believe the market has decided to squeeze,so a little trade or two on a ecm that has lot's of shorts should make some short term profit. Anybody got one beside jabil.jmho Patroller