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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (2018)	8/11/2021 12:59:47 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10521

Add to that trucker shortages. I think the supply will take longer to catch up with demand than early 2022, but the process you describe is how booms always end. Maybe in some arenas, it will catch up more quickly. I have a gaming friend who was bike shopping a few weeks ago. They told him to come back in 2023 for his size. I don't know what his size is, but that is a long long wait.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (2018)	8/19/2021 9:41:38 PM
From: Sun Tzu	4 Recommendations Recommended By Bocor kidl Lou Weed rcksinc Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10521

I am seeing a lot of evidence that the market is pricing in an economic slowdown. This includes the drop in the interest rates after the Fed hinted at moving up it's tapering, simultaneously with the drop in the commodities. I think it is more likely that we will experience one quarter of flat or negative growth. It will be enough to make some people panic and provide the rest of us with great buying opportunities. But as is often the case in the market, there are two opposite possibilities. Commodities could be dropping in anticipation of a greater supply coming online. The stocks could be dropping in anticipation of higher rates. And the interest rates could falling simply because people are parking money there. On his thread, Jacob concluded that there are lots of lesser iron oar producers that will come online once the price is high enough. So he sold his position in VALE in anticipation of the falling prices in 3 - 6 months. As I understand it, VALE's major product is iron oars. If this situation unfolds, steel producers will experience margin expansion as they will have pricing power while their prices paid falls. MT is in that category. You have to watch multiple signals to decide which scenario is more likely. If you are a trader, you may want to be short the markets for now. If you are an investor, make your shopping list. I have a lot of GTC orders waiting to be filled :)