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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (12013)	9/27/2021 11:10:54 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 26919

Good Morning Kirk, My preference would be to buy a wok and do our eating at home. This Covid experience has made me a bit of a recluse. I'm blessed with being married to a woman who loves to cook, and excels at even new dishes. Our kitchen has been cluttered up with new instant pots and pressure instant pots and she has found new toys in all of them. I bet she could get that instant pot to do some fabulous stir fry and soups. When she gets into the fall and it's chilly mornings, she instinctively goes to making big batches of soups and freezing them for easy quick access. I suspect that as employee costs of restaurants increase, owners will naturally crank up the price of their offerings. The longer term effect (as long as Covid is hyped and exaggerated) will be to delay many from going out to eat. If a restaurant has such a great customer base that they can increase their pricing, it may just be they want greater profits too. We had four Texans as company for the Ryder Cup. We went to our favorite "nice " restaurant and it was only half full. Half full with the community being flooded by 45,000!. When we asked about business, the waitress said they restricted the number of reservations as she was the only waitress. The kitchen was lightly staffed as well. They said they could not find workers to increase their business capabilities. It's really hard to know if things are good or if it is a false reading of a better economy and very real impairment due to employment shortfalls. No doubt the extended and generous government payments resulting from Covid have thrown the working economy a big jolt. I'd say it is still early for normalcy to become entrenched. I do agree that inflation is much higher especially at the pump, and most noticeably in the restaurants. We first noticed a big increase in prices at PAPASITO's a higher end Mexican Restaurant in Houston. It didn't impact us much as we have changed our "dining out" frequency as a result of Covid. I suspect the local governments are about to crank up taxation bills. I have seen a big increase in real estate taxes and insurance rates for our homes. I think cheif's idea of a global inflationary boom coming to us is on the money. As a side note Ray Dahlio sees it as well. After every expansion comes a recession. During that decline interest rates never reached previous highs and government debt expanded more. The following recovery was slower to respond and interest rates continued to go to new lower levels. Once rates got to zero then QE was greater as well as sovereign debt. Central banks have only one way to go - monetize their way out of the debt, which will be an inflationary event. That in a longer term view get's every one into a higher wage scale and the resulting progressive tax rates, feeds more revenue into the government. We appear to be at an inflection point and it seems the one thing government does not want to do is increase interest rates. They've painted themselves into a box. Modern Monetary Theory is now beginning to be discussed as well as the Great Reset. A NEW ERA BEGINS? I'm thinking I want to join this new era with a lot of cash and dividend paying stocks. It could be bumpy at times! Bob