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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (12169)	10/19/2021 8:27:37 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26821

"Past cycles" refers to the boom and bust nature of these stocks where we can easily fall 50 to 90% from peak prices. There are plenty of semis today with 40x PE’s and similar or slower growth than SIMO. Only the two with higher PEs that I follow with 40 or higher PEs. SLAB is just turning profitable while NVDA and AMD Cramer talks up on his show.... So….crypto doesn’t explain SIMO’s current pathetically low PE. Anything that takes speculative dollars from highly cyclical stocks will explain it. Simple supply and demand. Right now the demand is for things we might view as idiotic and they say to us "OK Boomer..." and roll their eyes at our lack of understanding. My guess the same thing happened to tulip buyers in January 1637 before the bubble collapsed in Feb 1637 Don't forget too that some of us are not convinced they don't have a wide enough moat or don't want to take the risk since we are fine with less risky stocks. It doesnt mean SIMO is a bad investment... just our dollars are invested elsewhere and not in Bitcoin.

To: Elroy who wrote (12169)	10/20/2021 10:41:24 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26821

I read this bit on "capacity additions needed to meet growing demand" to be good news for capital equipment stocks. Silicon wafer shipments to log robust growth through 2024, says SEMI Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei Wednesday 20 October 2021 Global silicon wafer area shipments will register robust growth through 2024, when about 16 billion square inches are forecast to be shipped, according to SEMI. Shipments for 2021 are expected to reach nearly 14 billion square inches in 2021, rising 13.9% on year and hitting a record high, said SEMI. The logic, foundry and memory sectors are contributing to the 2021 silicon shipment expansion, said SEMI. "We are seeing a significant increase in silicon shipments driven by strong secular demand for semiconductors across multiple end markets," said Inna Skvortsova, an analyst at SEMI. "The growth momentum is expected to continue in the following years but could be tempered by the slowing pace of the macroeconomic recovery and timing of the wafer manufacturing capacity additions needed to meet growing demand." digitimes.com