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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Statham who wrote (12432)	11/26/2021 11:37:52 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26433

See next post for definition of ABF Shortage of ABF substrates for notebook processors to widen in 2022 Jay Liu, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES Friday 26 November 2021 Notebook shipments will be affected. Credit: DIGITIMES In the notebook processor supply chain, ABF substrates will be among certain components that will see shortage widen in 2022, which may tighten supply of notebook processors affecting notebook shipments as a result, according to industry sources. ABF substrate supply has long been short of demand, and makers will prioritize their ABF substrate capacity support to major vendors of high-end HPC and server chips adopting advanced packaging processes, squeezing their supply for notebook processors, the sources said. Digitimes Research has estimated that the supply gap of ABF substrates for notebook processors may widen to 5-15% in 2022, as the shipment ratio of such substrates for server processors will rise notably. Aletheia Capital has also forecast the shipment ratio of ABF substrates for server applications will rise to 25% in 2022 from 15% in 2021 before advancing further to over 30% in 2023-2025, and that for notebook and PC applications will fall all the way to 27% in 2025 from 44% in 2021. Server chips incorporating advanced fabrication and packaging processes will significantly spur upgrades in layer count, area size and circuit density of ABF substrates needed, the industry sources said. ABF substrates for processing new server CPU platforms such as Intel's Sapphire Rapids and AMD's Epyc Genoa will be at least 20% larger in area size and see 2-4 more layers than those for current-generation processors, the sources continued. Specs upgrade will affect ABF substrate manufacturing yield rates and chiplet packaging technology now adopted by backend houses is posing further pressure to yield rates at substrate makers, the sources stressed. The makers usually can start with a yield rate of only 50% for ABF substrates designed for processing new server and HPC chips, the sources added. IC substrate makers have seen the majority of their ABF substrate capacity booked by major vendors of high-end HPC and server chips in 2022 and beyond, and satisfying the demand of the vendors is their top-priority job for next year, the sources said. Accordingly, shipments of ABF substrates for notebook processors will be at a lower pecking order at substrate makers, the sources indicated, especially given that notebook market prospects remain uncertain and smaller area size of ABF substrates for notebook CPUs can hardly secure high capacity utilization. digitimes.com