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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gg cox who wrote (8295)	12/4/2021 4:47:18 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13801

Shortly after the 2016 election, Jennifer Crumbley posted a letter of support to Donald Trump on Facebook. Jennifer claimed she was skipping car insurance payments to hire a tutor for her son Ethan, blaming the “mandated learning curriculum” in schools, “unfair mandatory car insurance laws” and how “kids in school come from illegal immigrant parents.” “As a female and a Realtor, thank you for allowing my right to bear arms,” Jennifer Crumbley wrote.” Her husband James Crumbley responded on Facebook posting, commenting, “My wife can be spot on.” Both parents have prior DUI convictions. “Ding-Dong”, clanged the Crazy-Bell

To: gg cox who wrote (8295)	12/6/2021 6:51:16 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By kidl Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13801

China is faltering, but the world is not feeling the effects December 6, 2021 by West Web The writer, Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s chief global strategist, is author of ‘The Ten Rules of Successful Nations’ China’s surprisingly rapid slowdown raises well-known warnings that as China goes, so does the global economy. Only China may not matter as much as it once did. Not so long ago, most economies grew in tandem with China. But in recent years, those ties have weakened and collapsed during the pandemic. Most dramatically, the correlation between gross domestic product growth in China and other emerging markets has fallen from near perfect (more than 0.9) to barely visible (less than 0.2) since 2015. In the second quarter of this year, China grew significantly slower than other emerging markets for the first time in three decades, which could be a sign of things to come. Beijing is going into lockdown to contain the pandemic and crack down on economically critical sectors and high corporate debt with an aggression unmatched by any other government. This largely explains why China is slowing down so quickly now, while the rest of the world is not. But the link between growth in China and other economies began to loosen about five years ago, so this moment may reflect deeper forces at play. You see a snapshot of an interactive image. This is most likely due to you being offline or having JavaScript disabled in your browser. One is the new commercial cold war. China has turned inward, replacing a trade-driven growth model with a domestic consumer-driven growth model. Exports as a share of China’s GDP have fallen from more than 35 percent before 2010 to less than 20 percent today. In 2015, Beijing launched Made in China 2025, a campaign to become self-sufficient by buying more necessities at home and developing more technology. The US responded under Donald Trump by working to “uncouple” China. Since then, President Joe Biden and many of Trump’s critics in Europe have taken a similar stance — stepping up those efforts during the pandemic. That meant buying more supplies from China’s commercial rivals, such as Mexico, Vietnam and Thailand. China accounted for about 35 percent of global GDP growth in the years before the pandemic, but that share plummeted in 2020 and now stands at about 25 percent. China still grew twice as fast as the five-year average for other emerging markets, but that gap has narrowed. Faced with the impediment of a shrinking population and its massive debt, China is likely to grow more slowly than other emerging markets in the coming years. You see a snapshot of an interactive image. This is most likely due to you being offline or having JavaScript disabled in your browser. Meanwhile, other global growth engines are gaining momentum, each lifting a different set of countries in significant ways. The digital revolution is increasing demand for semiconductors and other high-tech products, boosting exports from advanced emerging markets such as Taiwan and South Korea. Rising data flows are defying the slowdown in global trade and in China. Mobile internet technology is transforming the economies of larger, less sophisticated markets, including Indonesia and India, where digital revenues have more than tripled as a share of GDP in the past four years. India is one of the countries where trade with China as a share of the economy is declining. Much of this boost is coming from online services, which are growing rapidly and simultaneously across all emerging markets, no matter what happens in China. Globally, mobile technology accounts for about 10 percent of cumulative income growth, and these gains are expanding more rapidly in emerging markets. Efforts to contain global warming are causing “green inflation” in commodity prices by limiting the new supply of commodities and increasing forecasts of demand for “green metals” such as aluminum and copper. Rising prices are a major boost for green metal exporters, who mainly come from emerging markets such as Peru and Chile. China’s global decoupling may continue. The digital revolution, the fight against climate change and the new cold war will likely outlast the effects of the pandemic and could usher in a new era of growth in the emerging world. During the last golden age for emerging markets, after the turn of the millennium, many prospered mainly by supplying parts or raw materials to China – and then the emerging “factory for the world”. Now they have more options. Saying China matters less doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. China is still the most important trading partner for more countries than any other and the most important global buyer of raw materials. If, for example, her campaign to reduce massive corporate debt, particularly in the real estate sector, ends in a collapse, the effects will be global and inevitable. But smaller tremors may no longer be as drastic. If China stumbles, the world may not fall.