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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (7343)	2/7/1998 8:26:00 AM
From: Dwight Taylor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

How will Indonesia problem affect trade routes? Do they have a navy? It is interesting that the SEC has been publicly announcing the new terms for imposing circuit breakers. It is something like a 10% drop causes the breakers to kick in for a couple of hours. THe scenario for a quick drop must be threatening. I wouldn't be surprised if the SEC were to step in and stop trading altogether or at least impose restrictions on trading volume if a serious meltdown were to occur. They could justify it due to world-wide concerns of a market free-fall and subsequent panic. If that were to happen, IMHO gold deliveries would soar.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (7343)	2/7/1998 8:03:00 PM
From: MUDMAN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

What is interesting to note is that the gold bottomed the same day that the US long bond yield hit 5.66% interday - its low yield. Also the CRB index bottomed with a few days, and the US $ hit its high against the yen. In watching gold since its bottom, it is really starting to look very resillient. Any attempt to push it down is met with buying. It seems strong at the 3pm COMEX close most days. The one abberation was the big one day drop this week. I think gold will continue to gradually rise over the few months. As summer approaches, I see it getting back to $350. Most things in life gradually revert back to their means. Gold has traded mostly in a $300-400 range for the past decade. I see it returning to this range in 1998. I believe the US $$ has seen its peak vs. the yen. In addition to Japan reflating its economy (for real this time), the rest of Asia will recover VERY quickly - something the stock markets of the world seem to be saying. Don't underestimate the Asian peoples - they are educated, have strong families, great nationalistic pride, and a tremendous work ethic. They will bounce back much faster than we all think. As they do, the US $$ will weaken, getting back to a $/Y 105-115 range by fall.