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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (2707)	2/7/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: Dennis G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3736

I realize I didn't get everybody on that list. Just threw it together to get some idea of how SFAM stands with respect to the group. I reread their release and it seems to me that what they are claiming is that both revenues and earnings will be flat compared to a year ago. But since the number of shares has increased, EPS will be down. And it seems to me also that they could have still come close to making their number if they hadn't increased R&D so much. But their systems are still rated very highly and hopefully the extra R&D will keep them there. Also seems that they didn't really go out and "blame" anything in particular, but just a combination of things that is part of the general slowdown in the business. Which is why the stock got down to near book value in the first place. My understanding was that they didn't already have much Asian exposure but I guess were looking to that area for growth. Looking at their chart for the year and comparing it to the group, you can see that almost all the others started moving up at the start of the year and have had nice recoveries. But SFAM actually was going the other way until Wednesday. I guess I should have recognized that as a sign of difficulties. In that sense, maybe the big boys knew the quarter was at risk and some of this is already priced into the stock. So the question is, why the big run up on Wednesday on big volume? Don't think you could call it a squeeze because there wasn't much out short. Sure looked like funds and institutions buying. Were all those guys (including me) completely fooled? I guess we'll see on Monday. Dennis