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To: Kirk © who wrote (3512)	2/2/2022 10:31:18 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10698

Zero is the lower bound. I am aware of negative yielding bonds. But thankfully the Fed has learned from that terrible experiment abroad and is on the record saying that it won't happen here. Imagine for a moment if the pension funds actually had to pay the government for the bonds they hold rather than pay interest to the retirees. From the start, the doomsday scenario that I outlined nearly 20 years ago has been pegged to 2030 +/- a few years. And the reason I posted that chart is because it nicely visualizes the trend and why (plus the demographics support the 2030 timeframe). When the next crisis arrives, it will be different and the buy on dip won't work. My guess is that it will be triggered by the loss of reserve currency status. But that is not a necessity. The US will of course survive and go on, just as the UK did. But it will be ego bruising.