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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (13063)	2/10/2022 10:00:03 AM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By Kirk © Respond to of 26806

They can't do that. I think we'll have a quarter point in March. Another in May/June. And 2 more by March of next year. This is in contrast with the market expectation of 5 or 6 hikes this year. TNX should end the year ~2.25% or 2.5%.

To: Kirk © who wrote (13063)	2/17/2022 10:31:34 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26806

I've since modified my thinking on this that a 50bp hike in March with a promise of waiting until June to reassess is the Fed's best course of action. But it is not a sure bet. They have to be concerned about the slowing global growth and the geopolitics too. It will look very bad for the Fed if they hike too hard and then have to back out. But now a 50bp hike is in the cards, but the market is overestimating how much the Fed is able to hike. The 10 year cannot remain above 3% for any extended length of time.