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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (13105)	2/17/2022 10:20:57 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26806

From a fundamental perspective, SPX has another 10% to drop to reach fair value. It can always get undervalued The technicals are somewhat more positive and have been playing cat and mouse game with building a base (I'm referring to the market internals). The psychology is pretty negative. Even stocks that handily beat their numbers and pop for a few days end up giving those gains up. IBM is a good demonstration of this mindset. So it depends if you are the kind of investor who mostly follows the trend, the fundamentals, or is a contrarian. Barring a war in Ukraine or a similar global event (which I cannot predict), a 10% drop in SPX (~4k) should be a great buying opportunity. As to the interest rates, my upper limit for TNX is 3%. Figure out how much risk premium you want to receive for the stocks and buy those that give you a better than 3%+risk+earnings yield over the next 2 years. Oil at these levels is risky. It is a very overcrowded trade and a lot of Russia-Ukraine premium is built into it. If Russia doesn't invade Ukraine, or Putin somehow skirts the worst by recognizing the separatists government and just "support" them rather than roll into Ukraine, then oil could drop hard. In fact I think that oil will drop hard regardless, but it is a question of where it will drop from - a post invasion spike then a drop, or resolution and a drop. [Disclaimer - I shorted oil a few days and almost perfectly marked the top, but it is still in an uptrend and I could get burnt].