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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (8189)	2/8/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: kech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Doug and Ramsey - My take on the conference call is that this is a problem for earnings in 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter but has little or no bearing on earnings after that. This gives us a stock with a 16X multiple of expected '99 earnings. Could the market take it to 13X earnings in the next quarter (i.e. 39)? Sure. But the closer we get to August the less likely this becomes. You have to be nimble to play this kind of game of selling at 48 in hopes of buying back in at 40. Good luck. I don't have the same confidence in this scenario to play it (nor the temperment). A couple of posts have indicated that this is going to drop a lot more on Monday. Is there some more news out since Friday that would drop it some more? I must have missed something - or is this just based on the assumption that after people have digested the news they will assume that there is a lot more bad news waiting where this came from? I have no problems with QCOM management. To call a conference call like this within a short period after earnings announcement is the best thing they can do to avoid the prospect of insider information and rumors driving down the stock price before the public knows. Rather than panic on the Conference call I heard analysts basically trying to sort out long term effects from short term effects and "cancellation" from "postponement". As long as these Q's can be used elsewhere, particularly at PrimeCo the problem is not so bad. Others mentioned on previous messages that PrimeCo apparently has better regional coverage over broad areas than Sprint and therefore might be able to use the 1900 Q more effectively. This assumes that PrimeCo wasn't selling Q's due to rationing - I don't know why else they wouldn't be selling them. The consequences of the order cancellation from Hansol would just seem to shift earnings a quarter. Also, the Asics order was just postponed due to flatter Korean demand. This hurts if it continues. However, some part of this may be due to shorter term currency problems and could improve once the dust settles - the won is already a lot higher than it the lows in Dec. It seems like the argument for "QCOM in the 30's" needs further deterioration in Korea or a general market panic as other stocks report slower Asian earnings. On the counter side to this it looks like Korea is getting its act together as far as solving currency crisis, liquidity crisis and union crisis. The next stage is the export war as cheap Asian imports flood US markets. Will US financial markets crack in this stage? I don't know - but it would seem that in this stage, some of the benefits for QCOM will kick in as Samsung starts selling CDMA phones to Japan 4th quarter and US. Tom