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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (184845)	3/5/2022 11:50:34 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219711

Agree in all of that... I don't think the oil trade is close to "over"... as they fully intend to wring more blood from those stones, still... I see very little in the MSM about Iran and "deals" being made... in fact, see nothing other than "responses in opposition"... which is telling in itself. But, oil today seems it is becoming more of a principle than principle itself... as the war is being used to excuse and suppress concern with one set of more worthy principles... in favor of another far less worthy... So, expect any "good news" re Iranian sanctions being lifted... in order to access a flow of Iranian oil asked to replace some portion of lost Russian market share... will likely have a short term impact in imposing a crazy Ivan in oil prices... and a slightly longer term impact in driving the war to expand to include the entire Middle East... making the $120 short term price target in oil... appear laughable in the mid-term... Of course, beyond oil price impacts... the move seen in other relevant context might be equated to removing the safety from the nuclear trigger... I have work to do in parsing the timing elements, it seems... as the dearth of news is surely very purposeful... making it essential to obtain more of that being withheld... I note the moves in Oxy options were most timely in the very short term... it was a three day trade, with the last day being a !!! day. But, although Oxy still has upside... seeking to own it in call option form now is far more expensive and contains far more risk in the longer term view... that it had on Wednesday. As you say... options might be more worthy to trade again, after a correction... and there is reason to expect that there might be one generated... soon... I will have to revisit correlation charts... Oil is a far more impactful real factor in the economy (and thus in markets) now than largely irrelevant interest rate issues... so parsing those real impacts and the versus in agendas, aware of conditioning re expectations... is never more important than at turning points... where large deviations might be crafted. That obviously defines the situation far more in gold and silver now... than it could in oil... The longer term is clearly the "safer" bet... so longer dated options trades from mid-March to June, July, August... or longer... ? But, a close eye on "under-performers"... with potential in short term bets... can reward the risk taking with far lower cost bets yielding very high returns... I've found a few of those recently... yet struggle for now with trying to systematize the "finding"...