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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185001)	3/8/2022 2:01:04 PM
From: sense	2 Recommendations Recommended By alanrs fred woodall Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217906

The whipsaw in SPY and counterparty UVXY today overly predictable... I expect "more" in reply... as the rally fails... but, its a separate trade at this point from commodities... Biden just banned Russian oil imports... starting tomorrow, with a 45 day "wind down"... There is ZERO ability to replace that supply... whether from Venezuela or Iran... So, oil higher anyway.., whatever... JP Morgan upped "short term" target to $135 today... I noted yesterday the trading in shares not keeping up with reality... as assumptions of volatility averaging were in error... others cluing in now... Energy Stocks Have Huge Upside As They Catch Up With Oil... The divergence in a trading pattern vs value in the underlying exploits normalcy bias... oil is up, oil stocks are up... so, "that's about right"... except that sort of math in exponential functions is what most people are intrinsically unable to comprehend... and, here, overlaps... as the price is up exponentially... while the value to the company bottom line is, separately, an explodupenential function that's recently had oil leverage on the upside trading about 1 : 1 for the share value... versus a proper multiple... Reason not absent... as traders know to not count price rise chickens before they hatch into earnings as chickens... but, short term versus longer term sustained trends on "larger slope" in trajectory... with no real room for short term walking back... has left traders in the dust... IMO... The wobble today... because the EU is doing another $2 trillion in spending ? LOL!!! Yeah... like printing more money faster is going to throttle back the commodities boom... rather than throw gasoline on the fire ? I noted a while back... oil prices are the one thing the Fed does NOT control... But, it seems, the Fed also has no input in making Biden's economically critical policy decisions now... If you thought it was "insane" what Biden was doing in energy policy before... today it looks like "bat shit crazy" was only a warm up act...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (185001)	3/8/2022 2:22:25 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By fred woodall Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217906

Would note in follow up to "exponential"... The usual in expectation in the market that trading occurs in a range... is usually valid... What we're seeing here, today... SBSW probably an extreme as case in point... is "some" failing to understand that the range is now being violated... not as a function of excess in some few investors enthusiasm... but because prior reality tied to prior expectations... has already been obviated... and some few aren't getting it... In microcosm... you see that in the "breakout" in gold... leaving many questioning whether it could or would survive the rarefied atmosphere near its all time highs... just over $2,000... ? And, of course, with silver 50% below comparable value as other commodities... openly wondering whether it might ever breakout like gold, and survive "higher" in a sustained trend ? Of course, look at it adjusted for the rate of growth in M2 ? Gold usually TRACKS the M2... like its on a rail... and has not, recently, only as a function of the Basel III driven counter trade ongoing since 2011... the "small" cup and handle pattern... correcting for errors in balances enabled in relation to the crooked trading occurring in the larger cup and handle pattern crafted since 1980... Banks took 10 years to get back on "the right side" of the trade... as necessary to avoid being declared insolvent due to... what you see happening in nickel today. And, now... the prior 10 years pattern in displacement from the M2 trend is... obviated... with M2 flow higher in an exponential... while gold and silver have been counter-flowing lower... against the tide... since around 2016... rising LESS than the actual dynamic underpinning them requires... And, just as parity was attained in the Basel III trade ending... Biden happened... and M2 is going exponential... on track to... get Brandoned... And, the banks... are not being put at risk that trend...are on the right side of that trade (so, perhaps, enablng it now ?) or at least... are not held at risk now because of their gold related trades... Trading using the set expectations of a prior era... missing the fact a page has been turned... and reality today is not the same as reality was... just a few months ago ? Can't look at the world today and notice "something seems different" ?