The market today was ponderous... obviously controlled... boring... And I was impatient...and botched easy "fidget" trades because bored, impatient... trades that easily would and should have done far better with real focus... Not feeling it today.
The "take down" of commodities today... particularly oil... also seemed very scripted...
And, I think "the script" I penned addressing my view of that "event in control" yesterday was not damaged in the contact today... rather than validated...
The "narrative" today suffered far more than my view of it, I think..
The "take down"... or price... is a nearly meaningless piece of information... as disconnected from reality... so, and even more in the "shock value" intended... best ignored... while sustaining focus on... energy is money... and the market has been fucked...
Recognition events began appearing today... including seen both in the desperation in the acts, themselves, and in the narrative "explaining" why the market did what it did... in spite of the obvious sophistry of that "explanation" and its ludicrous dependencies... having ZERO rational connection with reality...
We're to the point... they're obviously lying... we clearly know they're lying... and they know we know they're lying... but, the pretense is sustained... as the nightmare grinds on serially subjecting us to its fun house features... in distortion...
But, I do think there is a clearer view of probable events emerging from the fog a bit more, after the close today...
ZH provides a free program... popcorn up to you...
Brandon's Super Silly U.S. Sanctions Show... today shows... what might appear as a creeping awareness of "Oh, My God... what did we just do"...if you believed they were not fully aware of what they were doing when they did it... which, today, still does not mean that the effort made in grappling with the consequences... as it wreaks of desperation... is not genuine in that one element, at least... Damage control efforts... proceed,,, but... yeesh...
Multiple "excuses" offered throughout the day... to try to explain away the carnage imposed in the oil patch...
It was... demand destruction... resulting from the slowing U.S. economy... (???) Then, perhaps with a shred more pretense to legitimacy... if the MO is a tad obvious... "It's China's fault"... because Covid, blah, demand, blah, destruction, blah... A few others tried... less memorable... but, then, landing finally on the least probably legitimate...
Oil Drops On Report Chevron Set To Start Trading Venezuelan Oil Once US Relaxes Sanctions plus comments
The lack of legitimacy and the obvious desperation... I will largely leave to the article / comments, noting only that Iran's reply to the same "requests"... was to lob missiles at a U.S. Embassy... leading roboPsaki to deny they were capable of "targeting" those missiles. I'd suspect Maduro is likely toying with Biden... one of the very few chances he might ever get to outmaneuver and humiliate another world leader... but, noted a comment saying... he already said no two days ago... and this is all theater... enabling Biden in being seen "doing something"... while enabling that to "suffice" (not "work") as an explanation for the price impacts...
But, the whole things clearly is a laughable sham... Venezuela cannot replace Russian oil: It's the wrong oil, first... it would take years and billions of $ to fix what they've broken... and... and... and.
So, as suggested in my charting of oil prices yesterday... today was "price manipulation" only... including in the faux narrative as explanation... and there is no ready to hand "solution" to "massive shortages coming"... and, vastly higher prices"... at least... not in view today... and not inherent in the market manipulation... which (as they know) only aggravates supply shortages and makes them worse... save for the "optics" of
doing something... making it not matter that what is being done is only harmful ? But, the narrative fails, still, even in presenting a credible thread... which does not mean that there will not be demand destruction yet to come... as lack of supply does that by itself... as may other deliberately destructive acts being undertaken...
So... "not buying it"... The view of the real market remains unobstructed... showing no possible path to "lower"... save perhaps... India and China suddenly gifted lower prices from Russian oil on sale... while the U.S., too... could easily be self sufficient, and supply Europe with gas... but not "allowed" to do so ??? So, all seems fully well aligned with "a plan" having that set of impacts... as there is no other path possible...
Oil higher... a question of time as "manipulation wears off"... or as reality interrupts...
Beyond oil...
I note... "the wheels are coming off"... not as "an event"... but seen in a sudden acceleration into a lot of crazy shit happening all at the same time... as only occurs... when "the rules" have just been repealed... as when Mom and Dad are out for the night... so, there will be fun had jumping on the beds...
Iran lobbing missiles, an instance... Drone attacks on Saudi oil fields...an instance... Saudi's executing a large number of Shia all in one day...
Iran Suspends Talks With Saudi Arabia After Execution Of 41 Shi'ite Muslims
Sabotage attempts in Iranian nuclear facilities...
Israeli Government Sites Suffer Major Cyberattack In Possible Iranian 'Retaliation'
As as a "series of unfortunate events" is likely to continue and accelerate... important to properly consider and characterize the circumstances in which such is seen... historically.... and what it portends... which is not mostly about markets...
And, a given... we have no serious or mature leadership, and a demonstrable lack of cooler heads...
UN Chief In 'Bone-Chilling' Statement: Nuclear War Back "Within Realm Of Possibility" Over Ukraine
US Threatens "Consequences" For China If Military Aid Given To Russia For Ukraine War
China Says "No One & No Force" Could Stop It From Taking Taiwan As 13 Jets Breach Taiwan Airspace
White House Warns China Over 'Deep Concerns' About Assistance To Russia In 7-Hour Rome Meeting
Rickards noting the casualties of economic war will begin to appear within two weeks or so of "events"... as the time it takes for the bodies to start to float to the surface... It will take luck, as the skill is absent, to avoid that metaphor becoming more real outside of Ukraine. The obvious on that casualty list include those more directly in the line of fire at the opening... so, a "too big to fail" trader in nickel gets a pass... and the market is failed instead of the trader... formally, today... ... because..."that's not corrupt"
Chinese Nickel Tycoon Reaches Standstill Deal On Massive Margin Call
With Chinese Commodity Tycoon Bailed Out, LME Announces Nickel Market To Reopen
They managed that, somehow, in less time than it takes them to clear your paycheck ?
We know some banks are under more stress than others... and wait for bodies to bloat and float...
Turkey, and now Nigeria... have run out of foreign reserves... and, more to come without doubt...
"...we should all be keeping a close eye on the funding markets... for signs that something more significant is manifesting" coming from Goldman Trader: "The Past Few Weeks Have Poured Kerosene On A Tectonic Shift That's Taken Shape Over The Past Six Years". Assuming he does not mean the shit show on tap at the Fed... as slated for tomorrow's command performance in attempting a world's first "triple policy error... with a full twist... and multiple back flips"...
On the same day in the same rag... Barclays has announced the suspension, until further notice, of any further sales from inventory and any further issuances of iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN (ticker OIL) and iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)... because “Barclays does not currently have sufficient issuance capacity to support further sales from inventory and any further issuances of the ETNs”. So, maybe a big nickel trader not the only one being deemed to big to fail... and perhaps giving another, and more reasonable, explanation for a "take down" in oil, today... as the same time explaining why the VIX trade... was so ponderous and boring...? And VXX was bid aggressively... literally, the very next moment after I decided "this is a waste of my time"...
Not sure if its "gratifying" to see proofs "fishing in the right ponds"... where whale bodies are suddenly floating to the surface.... or have reason to fear... the pond may disappear without notice or leaving any trace... and maybe don't be standing too close when it does. A reason to refocus oil interest away from ETF / ETN land... to the less well traveled and more linear trades in holdings in or options on particular shares... favoring smaller non-domestic producers... quality plays well outside Biden's clear lines of fire...
Friday will be a fun options expiry... with > 90% of options in the SPY on the put side... many in very big money bets placed far out of the money... now... at 360... and lower...
Counter to that statement I just made... diversifying commodities strategies is something I've been poking at recently... finding there are covered call writing ETNs focused in oil, gold, silver... which I still expect are relatively "safe" as "boutique"... And, today, found similar in "commodity trader space" as:
BAL - iPathA Series B Bloomberg Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN
CANE - Teucrium Sugar Fund
CORN - Teucrium Corn Fund
COW - iPathA Series B Bloomberg Livestock Subindex Total Return ETN
JJG - iPathA Series B Bloomberg Grains Subindex Total Return ETN
JO - iPathA Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN
NIB - iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN
SGG - iPathA Series B Bloomberg Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN
SOYB - Teucrium Soybean Fund
WEAT - Teucrium Wheat Fund
Most likely aware Ukraine will probably not have much of a crop this year... and they produce a large portion of global wheat, with corn, etc., while Russia does wheat also... or used to... and may not as much without access to "the ability" markets enable... The Biden Global Famine... coming soon.. That's a very large portion of global wheat held at risk... and wheat spiked to record highs a few days back... and has dropped back a tad... but still over $10. But, no "wheat this fall profits taxes" on farmers ? Those evil greedy bastards... /s
And, this... Russia May Ban Wheat, Rye, Barley And Corn Exports Until June 30
And, didn't get around to the implosion in PGEs, gold and silver... and many of the shares... today ?
And that hardly seems worth the bother after all the rest...
But, I saw nothing, today, that altered my views re value...and where it is lacking...
So, I sat on hands, mostly, and plinked a bit more of this or that as the opportunities arose... mostly early in the day...
And, on to planning for tomorrow |
