Re <<iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN (ticker OIL)>>
did not do OIL, as had experience with it before, was okay, but there appears to be better proxies, including XOM
did the following last night, and shall get intern to study them as I learn-along
whilst all starter-positions, and I aim to learn the behaviour of the positions tagged to news flow, and there be copious flow
they all appear to be relatively small ink mkt cap, illiquid, but all have options, which in turn are less than illiquid, I reckon the positions must be held close to expiration and rolled. I do not know whether current volatilities are in line w/ historical wobbles
sold enough puts to pay for the XOM leap calls, and to pay for grocery for a time.
Embracing persistent inflation, and intending to roll with them, to ensure steady supply of sustenance inflation-free, at least, and if at all possible, deflation-best
So, long oil, gold, and silver
Long agriculture, livestock, cereal, copper, coffee, cocoa, and dry bulk shipping
Did not do sugar, cotton, and water. Or not yet.
My boring MacDonalds position over the years has done spectacularly, but (i) boring, and (ii) boring again
Might revisit the ag processors
Am unsure how the below commodity ETFs will do during extreme market hearings, as any might do a USO and blow up
In any case, 'buying' GLD and SIL fore negative prices helps to pay the bills, and those are never ending
 finance.yahoo.com
fool.com
Why Didn't U.S. Oil Fund Go Negative on Monday?
Many energy investors might be confused about how this oil fund works. Dan Caplinger
Investors like having the flexibility to track just about any benchmark they want. The rise of the $5 trillion exchange-traded fund industry has made it dramatically easier for investors seeking exposure in just about any corner of the market to get it.
But what many investors find out the hard way is that not every fund tracks an underlying investment the way they expect. For investors in United States Oil Fund ( USO 7.91% ) on Monday, that actually turned out somewhat better than shareholders might have expected. Yet with news of oil prices going negative on Monday, the question many are asking is why U.S. Oil Fund's shares didn't follow suit.
What U.S. Oil Fund aims to give investorsThe creators of the United States Oil Fund designed the exchange-traded security to track the daily price movements of West Texas intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude. Specifically, the investment objective of the fund is to reflect daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of crude delivered to the energy hub in Cushing, Oklahoma.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, the way that U.S. Oil Fund goes about doing that is slightly more complicated. Rather than actually owning spot oil and storing it, the fund instead uses oil futures contracts to try to approximate movements in the spot oil market. As long as futures prices remain somewhat aligned to those of the underlying spot market in crude oil, then U.S. Oil Fund's performance on a day-to-day basis typically has similar movements to those of the spot commodity.
The futures that U.S. Oil Fund invests inSome investors might have expected U.S. Oil Fund's shares to get completely wiped out on Monday. News that May WTI crude futures had gone into negative territory suggested the same sort of outcome that ETFs tied to volatility levels suffered in early 2018, with one fund taking a catastrophic hit that caused it to shut down entirely.
But U.S. Oil Fund didn't go negative, and the reason is that it had already gotten out of those May futures. According to its schedule, U.S. Oil Fund started rolling out of May contracts into June futures starting on April 7, with the intent of completing the move by April 13. As a result, by Monday, the fund no longer owned any May futures, having moved most of them to June.
In addition, U.S. Oil Fund recently changed its investment guidelines. The size of the fund had created problems in complying with regulatory restrictions limiting the number of futures contracts that any one party can have open at a given time. As a result, the fund diversified about 20% of its exposure to the futures contracts expiring two months out. Right now, therefore, the fund holds about 158,000 contracts for June crude oil and almost 34,000 contracts expiring in July.
What it would take for U.S. Oil Fund to go to zeroThe way that United States Oil Fund tries to mimic spot price movements saved it from disaster on Monday, but it doesn't mean the fund is safe. Early Tuesday, prices of the June futures that U.S. Oil Fund has as the bulk of its crude position were down more than 30% to $14 per share, and shares of the fund itself dropped about 20% at the open just after 9:30 a.m. EDT.
If prices of June futures go negative before the fund's scheduled roll date between May 5 and May 8, then there's a chance that U.S. Oil Fund's shares could go to $0 as well. Much would depend on whether the fund's roughly 20% position in July futures managed to stay positive to offset the downward moves for June.
The big question facing the oil futures markets is whether oversupply will last so long that it causes contracts for June and July to see the same volatility that May contracts saw on Monday. If those supply-and-demand disparities persist and futures prices head toward negative levels, then energy investors who look to U.S. Oil Fund might face the loss of their entire investment. |