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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: skinowski who wrote (763623)6/5/2022 5:06:52 PM
From: ig4 Recommendations

Recommended By
Ben Smith
lightshipsailor
pak73
skinowski

  Respond to of 793673
 
I don’t expect you to agree - and I respect your opinion. That’s what makes a pluralistic society
I, too, disagree with Tim on this hot-button topic, but he does an exemplary job of making his case with reason and civility. I look forward to reading him.



To: skinowski who wrote (763623)6/5/2022 5:37:57 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation

Recommended By
THE WATSONYOUTH

  Respond to of 793673
 
The Donbas s both Donesk and Luhansk. Its also legitimately Ukrainian territory. So is Crimea but I think I'd be a bit more realpolitik (to the extent that's even meaningful in context, I guess it would depend on what sort or policies or deals are on the table) on that since

1 - Its more important to Russia
2 - Its majority Russian, rather than majority Russian speaking but with ethnic Russians only a very large minority.
3 - Its harder to take back, because its an easily defended peninsula having narrow access from the mainland.

But realpolitik isn't that relevant to the point. It can inform your actions, it could be used to argue for one policy or another in regard to Russia or Ukraine or its conflicts. But even if the policy was "we aren't going to get involved" it still wouldn't change the fact both Russia's attack in 2014 and its escalation in 2022 were "unprovoked aggression which was a one-man decision made by a dictator".



To: skinowski who wrote (763623)6/5/2022 6:22:21 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation

Recommended By
THE WATSONYOUTH

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793673
 
Another think about "realpolitik" being overly accommodating of the perceived interests of a foreign power can increase the risk of war as much as not sufficiently accommodating their interests. Maybe not in the short run they will get what they want and be happy I guess, but after that. Yield easily to unreasonable aggression that is at least peripherally attached to your interest and you give other powers more reason to view their interests and aims more expansively and take more aggressive measures to obtain them. You also encourage other powers not involved in the specific potential conflict to see you as easily yielding to force or threat of force at least if it doesn't go to far. Meanwhile your own people (both in general and those with political influence) may be fed up with yielding. Then you get challenged again, or maybe a third time with your rival expecting you to yield and instead your countries all angry and reacts even harder then they would have if the reaction was earlier.

Not much was done about Georgi, then came the Donbas and Crimea. A bit more was done but still very little then came the attack toward Kyiv. Had that succeeded, it might be all of Ukraine, and perhaps Moldova next. Meanwhile the PRC would be encouraged to consider efforts towards Taiwan. Realpolitik is supposed to be pragmatic, not just accommodating, and that chain of events is practically bad and also leads to a more serious risk of war than sending some weapons to Ukraine does.