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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gtc123 who wrote (1075)	2/10/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2063

Numbers: Assuming total shares outstanding = 12,395,000 Population coverage of their licenses of 8.6M One LMDS license = 11.5 channels per CVUS definition Value per Value per Stock Market Value channel pop channel pop Price Cap per pop (11.5 chan) (13 chan) 7 86.7M 10.1 0.87 0.78 10 124.0M 14.4 1.25 1.11 15 185.9M 21.6 1.88 1.66 18 223.6M 26.0 2.26 2.00 22.5 279.5M 32.5 2.83 2.50 OK Larry, here's how I see it. The really correct to value the license in my mind is the last column using 13 channels (ie more accuratly compares licenses at 28 GHz with those at 24 and 38 GHz). The talk has always been a channel pop was worth $2 to $2.50, giving a value to CVUS of $18 to $22 per share. To answer your question, to support a 7, 10, and 15 share price, the licenses would have to be worth $10.1, $14.4, and $21.6 per pop respectively. I think the licenses are really worth at least 26 per pop, giving a share price of $18. This is pretty much in line with Jim's thinking of $25 per pop. Now, let's just hope for a good auction and hope the bidders see it this way.

To: gtc123 who wrote (1075)	2/10/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2063

Here's another interesting (and exciting) way to view the auction. All the best estimates I've seen indicate that people still believe the auction will take in $4B. Since the minimum opening bid on the entire nation is $186M, that would indicate that, ON AVERAGE, the experts are expecting the licenses to go for 21.5 times the minimum opening bid. For the large cities, this would be $19.35 per pop. On top of that, I would have to guess that many, many, smaller markets will go for the minimum bid, or not much more. The biase would have to be to weight the largest markets the highest. I think that would have to say NY and LA will go for at least $25 per pop. And even if the auction comes in short of the $4B, it looks like the large markets should at least go for the $20 to $25 range, and the short fall will be in the mid to small size markets. Just figuring and thinking and hoping the bidding gets out of control like the last PCS auction!! Here's another interesting point; the opening bid will be for the minimum, ie $2.25 in the large markets. After that, raises, I believe, have to be in some multiple from 1 to 9 of the minimum bid. That would mean, after the open, in the worst case, only 8 raises and the bid would already be over $20 per pop. Or the very first raise could be to $22.5 per pop. The prices could move fast. Won't be any of this 2.25, 2.27, 2.33, 2.50, 2.56, etc, etc, etc.