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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (62761)	6/15/2022 12:17:42 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Jacob Snyder Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97543

It's not a flawed strategy though when you think about it. My long term theme for the last 20 years has been american standards are going to slide and the emerging countries are going to gain until we eventually meet in the middle. As emerging markets evolve, they are going to need more energy so they will offset our losses. Also, while there are some bio friendly substitute methods for making some plastics, we are always going to need some old fashioned oily polymers as well as industrial chemicals. I couldn't live without acetone!!!! I wouldn't invest in the USA either. Biden's BS yesterday is exactly why. If government wants to be hostile, then let them pay $5000 a barrel to fuel his war machines. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Keep it up and they'll just move their office offshore like companies did from south Africa when they started over taxing and mandating free HIV drugs for mining employees.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (62761)	6/15/2022 3:52:12 PM
From: jpdunwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97543

If big oil is not willing to invest even in countries that don't have a strict ESG policy, then they are implicitly saying their industry is a dying one and all their complaints about ESG is BS. I'm not sure I understand your argument? ESG policy is/will have an impact on the overall demand/market/price for oil, even if they invest in other countries that don't have ESG policy. While the oil companies may realize that eventually there will be superior forms of energy, their point is that the free market is not what is currently determining this, and that these policies are having a big impact on their investment decisions and the resulting market. This administration has been very blunt about their intent to handicap this industry and incentivize alternatives. Do you think that's false, and do you blame them for pointing that out? I guess I don't see the BS here. That's like saying if policies were put in place here in the US to discourage private car ownership and incentivize mass transit, that Hyundai (for example) would be full of BS saying those policies were keeping them from investing in new factories outside the US. This is simply an acknowledgement of world demand, and ROI impact from those policies. They would have a huge overcapacity, and would leg it out as long as their existing factories could continue to meet the decreased world demand and it made economic sense. And just as with ESG, who's to say that if the US decided the world would be better off without cars (an extreme ESG argument that could be made, btw, regardless of fuel source), that other countries wouldn't eventually follow suit? Yes, it's an implicit admission that their industry would be dying, but the ESG policies played a determining factor in that. They would be foolish not to consider and point this out as an impact, and I can't fault them for that. I imagine a lot of this is waiting for the clouds to clear. They're reluctant to make investments until they have a clearer picture of what the future holds for them. Right now, there's a lot of dark skies and threatening storms they see (ESG policies being among them), so they're legging it out until there's a clear investment case for them. We've been through these cycles before, even if for different reasons. Right now, EVs are being pushed heavily, but they're not totally ESG-friendly either, but no one's focused on that. There's still a lot to shake out in the intermediate/long term.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (62761)	6/16/2022 7:28:49 AM
From: jpdunwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97543

If big oil is not willing to invest even in countries that don't have a strict ESG policy, then they are implicitly saying their industry is a dying one and all their complaints about ESG is BS. Timely enough, I read this article this morning, which might give you further insight into how ESG is impacting investment decisions, even in countries that don't have ESG policies: theepochtimes.com "In 2021, BlackRock sided with hedge fund firm Engine No.1, which replaced new directors on ExxonMobil’s board, believing that the oil giant had responded too weakly to the climate crisis. Citing a Wall Street Journal report, Hild said the board subsequently considered divesting itself from two gas and oil projects in Mozambique and Vietnam." If you're a CEO or BoD member, you think that message wasn't well-received and that it's not impacting your investment decision-making process? Business case aside, these guys are going to protect their own asses above all else.