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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4455)	6/18/2022 3:40:33 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10570

Rents continue to sky rocket and car prices, used and new, made a nice come back this past month. This decline is all about the Fed and the Fed wants to kill the economy. That's the crux of the matter: the economy is weakening and the Fed wants to kill the economy in the spirit of attacking demand to bring inflation down. Let's talk very short term because that is the only way you make money in bear markets: I think the garbage like Cathy Wood's ARK and Crypto can rally strongly from current levels. Crypto is the equivalent of the Dot.coms at the beginning of the century and even the Dot.coms had 30-40% bear rallies before most of them passed away. I see no difference with Crypto. Look at the NDX-10, the top 10 companies in the NDX and they have held up above their May 24th lows. Lots of people have been saying that at some point the Fed has to stop raising rates given the tremendous amount of debt in the system. But if we continue to take the Fed at its word, this Market is screwed and the Bear will continue intermediate to longer term based on weakening economy fundamentals that will eventually in time kill inflation at the expense of creating a deflationary bear market that will last for months. It is very risky, but the play here is to go long the garbage, the stuff that has gotten hit the hardest for a rally to SPX $4400. Then short the market down to $3400. Next week is one of the most bearish weeks of the year, historically speaking. Hard to figure what that means since this last week was one of the most bullish weeks of the year, historically speaking.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4455)	6/18/2022 3:50:15 PM
From: kidl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10570

How high would the Fed have to raise the rates for food and energy prices to come down, when their supply has nothing to do with the interest rates? At the risk of proving my ignorance … The Fed could raise interest rates tenfold. It wouldn’t do anything to reduce inflation. While energy consumption can be somewhat curtailed by producing less “nice to have” stuff, this doesn’t apply to food and the Fed can’t fix the food shortages largely caused by the Ukrainian war. This isn’t a situation the FED or the ECB can fix. The only fix I can see is clipping Putin's wings. A solution, I believe, would even meet with China's quiet approval.