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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4459)	6/18/2022 7:47:26 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10563

The Powell Fed has been so off the mark, I wouldn't trust any Fed model to be accurate. NAHB and ISM are the best signals that I use to determine bottoms. ISM is trending down and isn't close to bottoming. The NAHB Home builder sentiment has been weakening and that index leads by a few quarters so ISM should remain over 50 for a bit. They need to both bottom before the market can turn up and sustain a rally. What is SPX trading at if earnings fall to $200? Around 20 times, which is not cheap. Low rates and stimulus elevated multiples to a level where they never would have traded otherwise. Isn't that the definition of a bubble? There's now no more stimulus and no one, including the Fed, has any real clue how high rates will go. The safest or conservative approach is to wait this out. Sure, the market is so oversold, a rally looks possible or even likely. Speculating on a bottom looks very risky here.