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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (995)	6/20/2022 6:35:13 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21914

Prime risk is failure to execute the plan, to establish the kind of comfortable retirement that was the goal of the old folk portfolio. I presented a scenario where the old folk portfolio would be devastated through a multi-decade secular bear market where the market falls well over 50% over a multi-decade period and cash flows, in the form of dividends get cut in half or are eliminated entirely. Something like this can easily occur this decade. If someone is 55 years old in your old folk portfolio and a deflationary bear market took place over a multi-decade period with massive dividend cuts, the portfolio would be devastated and the plan to retire at 65 with a nice nest egg would be aborted. I am not saying such a thing is in the process of happening now - I, actually don't know and don't think so, at this point - but there is a pretty disturbing sign of over 85% of US listed stocks below its 200-SMA, which typically only happens in a secular bear market. Typically, the dividend cuts take place after the Market has been down closer to 40-50%. I am quite aware that the vast majority of Bear Markets last a year or two. So buying the dip in cash rich companies would be very beneficial when the Market rebounds and enters a bull phase. I'm very aware of what you are doing and it is a good plan that works as long as a Bear Market does not extend indefinitely over the course of a decade or longer and dividend cuts don't come to the fore. I think at some point during this decade the Market will enter a very extended secular bear. Do you consider or take into account for such things? If so, how so?