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Pastimes : Richard Ney and the Wall Street Gang -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Winstonwolf who wrote (160)	2/10/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: BenYeung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 492

When Ney went bearish in August-October, the market turned upwards a few times, if you remember, back to the high-end of 7000. After a while, he kept his view but stopped stressing on the telling EXACT DATE it will happen. Then it happened. The rest is history. So I doubt that Ney will turn 180 and go bullish. He is still expecting the last climax for the bears. How come you did not buy any during Oct with you hefty 85% cash? That was the opportunity of a lifetime! I wished I had cash (I almost had a margin call, equity down to 35% briefly...no joke, I am back to 55% now without putting new funds in...what an experience!!! Phewww, wipe the sweat from my forehand.) By the way, how much is interest yield at your brokerage house? Do you swap between stocks and bonds sometimes? JBIL just ran out of steam, lets see how low will it go this time... By the way, my fortune telling skills did not live up to my expectations...the market made a new high in Feb 10, not the end of January as I expected...maybe I gotta have a few fortune cookies tonight. Ben Yeung

To: Winstonwolf who wrote (160)	2/22/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 492

Earlier in January fundies were sitting on allot of cash that they took out of the market earlier and placed into bonds and money markets. I verified this with a person that I have met who is a newsletter writer that has many friends who are fund managers that subscribe to his newsletter. This is why there have been periods where bonds diverged from the stock market as money is being moved from bonds to stocks. Also another significant factor is the foreign investor that has pulled their money out of the Asian market and has been looking for a safer market for their money. Many if not most invest in bonds over stocks, particularly people from countries like Germany. But there are still many that do invest in stocks. This type of foreign investor for the most part only recognize the bluest of blue chips like GE and Disney. This is where they have been placing their money. Much of the money here in the U.S. which includes the funds have been moved into mid cap and even the small cap stocks. This is why we have been seeing the NASDAQ show great strength and a continued move upward even on down days for the DJIA. This is also why the S&P 500 has been making new highs. IMO the current market has been demonstrating a very high degree of speculative interest right at the outset of this rally which is unusual and is commonly found near a market top. After a long consolidation, and considering that the market has encountered multiple retraces, a rally starts out in the blue chip type of stocks. Also recently the market rally has been lacking breadth. Much of the recent gains in NASDAQ has been in a handful of stocks that have been helped more recently by DELL. DELL was one of the first stocks to show strength coming out of the consolidation we had. One reason for this is that the box makers was one of the first places that funds moved their money to from their position in cash once the identified a market that bottom that was showing growing strength on the upside. IMO this leg of the market is not for the investor or the inexperienced. Yet many of the inexperienced Joe and Jane Public are now participating in this market. We will have interesting times ahead for us in terms of additional market volatility. I think there will be more quick gains to be had and even a possible major market top. As market wisdom goes, when you have everyone participating in the market and find even your waitress talking about the stock market and giving stock advice, the market is near its end. What will make this market top long in duration is the unprecedented amount of fund money (well over 2.5 trillion dollars and growing rapidly) and what is now being moved into the market which includes the old fund money, the new fund money, and large monies from the foreign investor. A tide of this proportion can float many boats for a period of time, but by the time you see the tide having dropped any appreciable level, it is normally too late. And the market volatility can very easily convince others that the market still has life in it and is going somewhere when actually major insider and institutional distribution is occurring. There has always been solid evidence of a pending market correction before it actually happened if a person is willing to look objectively at the market. For example, my father has been investing for over 50 years, and I do not think he has ever been caught in a market downturn. For example, he was able to see the 1987 crash come over 3 months in advance which is common for him. Another example is that I saw this last market correction come over one month before it happened. Many who trade in the markets can see a correction coming. This does not require supernatural skill from an investor or trader. People have an incredible ability to filter their perception to be compatible with their story about the markets. When they want to see a market of rising prices, everywhere they look they will see evidence for a bull market. I have learned never to underestimate the publics ability to delude themselves as far as the pursuit of money is concerned. I have seen examples of such extreme self-delusion in this area that if this problem of theirs showed up in other areas of their life where it would have a greater impact on their day-to-day functioning, I think it would be considered a mental illness. After many have lost much money this way and woke up to the consequences, they go away thinking that it is that stock market that did it to them, and the market is just for gamblers. A word to the wise. "The market will continue going up (forever). The market is not manipulated. The specialist is there for my best interest. If those market making firms were that criminal, the SEC would of thrown them in jail by now." Show me a person who makes these statements, and I will show you a person that has led a much too sheltered life. No wonder we need laws that require the use of helmets when riding a motorcycle. People need to be protected from themselves. The "professionals" are no different. How about statements that were made from some well known economists in the context of their exuberant statements about how wonderful everything is: "Inflation has been beaten and is a thing of the past. We will no longer experience recessions". This type of statement by economists and market analysts alike preceded the last correction by only a couple months. This is normal for people to take leave of their senses while they are being swept up by the bullish outlook and enthusiasm of others. Just some thoughts as I look down and find myself on my soapbox. ;) Bob Graham