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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rzborusa who wrote (45551)	7/30/2022 2:28:29 AM
From: Vattila	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72329

Yeah, it is the magic from ASML that makes the difference, isn't it? By the way, I am looking at Zacks Detailed Estimates for AMD, and they still have AMD falling from 60% revenue growth this year to 13% growth next year, which is well below the well-received financial plan for 20% CAGR laid out at the recent Financial Analyst Day. Why are the expectations so low? What is it that is going to cause such dramatic slowdown in the growth rate next year? Intel, in their Q2 earnings call, made it clear that, although taking a breath after the pandemic boom, the PC market is going to remain strong at well over 300 million units a year. AMD has a clear lead in energy efficiency and is increasing their share in the high end of this market, now surpassing Intel's ASP and margins. And there is no slowing down in the demand for high performance computing — the need to process the relentlessly growing amount of data produced around the globe is not going away — so the data centre market is expected to continue to grow substantially according to industry analysts, I believe. And AMD's competitive position is not going to get worse next year, with Ryzen 7000, RDNA3, EPYC 4 and the MI300 server APU just around the corner. Meanwhile Intel is still stumbling badly with server product delays, and admitting — stating it clearly in their own words — that they will need years (!) to get back to a competitive product line in the data centre ("grow below market average", as they phrased it). And while hype and prospects for the growth in AI and GPU acceleration is driving the still sky-high valuation of Nvidia, Intel's AXG division is struggling (poor Raja is in the hot seat again) losing half a billion in the last quarter alone. Looking at Nvidia, they have decided to tie their next big product, the DGX H100, to Intel's troubled "Sapphire Rapids" chip, which by all expectation now will lose badly against "Zen 4", at least on the ever important power efficiency and compute density metrics. On the hardware, AMD GPUs are becoming more competitive, especially in the data centre and HPC markets. On the software side, AMD's ROCm framework is fast becoming competitive with Nvidia's CUDA framework, with remarkable support and adoption in the supercomputing space already apparent. Gaming is on par with Nvidia for the most part. So what is the explanation for 13% growth expectation next year? And if it is just nonsense, as it seemst to be, what is your reasonable expectation for next year growth? Personally, I expect continuing EPYC snowballing, with accelerating share gains in client markets as well. The idea that AMD is somehow getting stuck at 10% server share and 20% client share is for the birds. If nothing much changes, we'll see 30% and beyond in due course. PS. Here is The Next Platform's take on Intel's predicament: Intel Let The Chips Fall Where They Might (nextplatform.com)